Beyond Brexit

October 26, 2016

Should they stay or should they go?

Editorial Each morning bankers, analysts, manufacturers and their assorted intermediaries will be scratching their heads and sifting through news reports for clues as to what a Brexit outcome might look like. Should…

October 26, 2016

Middle ground manoeuvers

The major political parties in Western democracies are scrambling to attempt to understand and respond to what appears to be a spreading revolution against mainstream conventional political thinking on many of today’s big…

October 26, 2016

The political logic of a hard Brexit

PARIS – Little more than three months after the United Kingdom’s decision in June to leave the European Union, Brexit politics are careening out of control in the UK. An almost revolutionary…

October 26, 2016

The Game of Brexit

In one way it is fortunate that the pre-negotiations on Brexit have staked out the territory. The game has crystallised into two dimensions – controls to reduce unwanted migration into the UK…

October 19, 2016

EU to profit as banks consider their future

As the UK government seems determined to pursue a hard Brexit, banks in the City are planning to shift some operations and thousands of jobs to other European Union countries to ensure…

October 19, 2016

Topographia hibernica: Irish ponder feast or famine

The colonial mind-set will employ a cognitive dissonance of superiority before questing after another nation’s natural resources. It was no different between imperial Britain and pastoral Ireland. Giraldus Cambrensis, the Welsh ecclesiastic,…

October 19, 2016

The end of the beginning of the revolution?

There is ferocity in the way that Brexiters are warning against anything less than hard Brexit which suggests they are fearful of what could be called the “think again” factor. A similar…

October 19, 2016

Majority see value in overseas students

Overseas students studying in Britain’s universities are not seen as immigrants by most Britons and the majority do not want to see numbers cut, a new survey has revealed. Conducted by ComRes…

October 19, 2016

A glimmer of something in a future that is dark

On Wednesday last week members of parliament were given a chance to debate the need for “Parliamentary Scrutiny of Leaving the EU”. The House of Commons self-assembled into an intelligently expressed, cross-party…

October 12, 2016

UK tourism in search of silver lining

New agreements maintaining market access for United Kingdom airlines operating in Europe must be quickly put in place or they will lose the legal right to operate services, Parliament will be told…

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Israel considers its options after Iran’s attack
Israel showed signs that it would not immediately retaliate for the hundreds of exploding drones and missiles that Iran fired at it over the weekend, nearly all of which Israel and its allies intercepted. Israel’s war cabinet met yesterday without deciding when or how to respond to the assault. But officials said they would relax restrictions on large gatherings and educational activities, a possible indication that they did not expect an immediate escalation. Iran’s attack, in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed seven Iranian military commanders in Syria, represented a moment of great risk, because it was the first time it had directly struck Israel in the two nations’ long shadow war. But it caused little damage, largely because Iran had telegraphed its intentions well in advance. “The matter can be deemed concluded,” Iran’s mission to the UN said in a statement. “However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe.” New York Times, April 15

Oil prices lower after Iran attack on Israel
Oil prices fell on Monday after after Iran's reprisal attack on Israel over the weekend. Brent crude - a key benchmark for oil prices internationally - was lower but still trading close to $90 a barrel on Monday morning. Prices had already risen in expectation of action by Iran, with Brent crude nearing a six-month high last week. Analysts said the markets would be looking to see how the conflict could affect global supply chains. Oil price fluctuations can cause ripple effects across the world due to countries being heavily reliant on the commodity, which is used to produce fuels such as petrol and diesel. Fuel and energy prices have been a major driver behind the higher cost of living worldwide in the past couple of years. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices soared to $120 a barrel over supply fears as western nations imposed sanctions on Russia, one of the world’s major oil exporters. The jump led to not only higher prices at the pumps, but also countless other goods as businesses adjusted their prices to cover higher costs. Analysts said Israel’s reaction to the attack would be key for global markets in the days and weeks ahead. BBC news, April 15

Joe Biden’s approval rating on the economy is rising among US voters
The number of American voters who approve of Joe Biden’s handling of the economy is rising, but concern over inflation, including rising fuel prices, could derail his re-election bid, according to a new poll. The latest monthly poll conducted for the FT and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business found that 41 per cent of registered voters said they approved of Biden’s handling of the economy. That is a five-point jump from a month earlier, when just 36 per cent said they approved, and the highest approval rating since pollsters began asking the question in November. Biden’s overall approval rating has climbed to 43 per cent, four points higher than in March and another record high since the monthly poll started. But while Biden has improved his standing with younger voters, women, independents and Black and Hispanic voters, in particular, since last month’s poll, it highlights warning signs for the president. Financial Times, April 15

Trump to face start of historic hush money criminal trial in New York
Donald Trump goes to court on Monday as the first US ex-president ever to be criminally prosecuted, a seismic moment for the United States as the presumptive Republican nominee campaigns to re-take the White House. The scandal-plagued 77-year-old is accused of falsifying business records in a scheme to cover up an alleged sexual encounter with adult film actress Stormy Daniels to shield his 2016 election campaign from adverse publicity. The so-called hush money affair is only one of four criminal cases hanging over Trump and some legal observers suggest it is the least serious. But the real prospect of Trump becoming a convicted felon - and potentially facing jail time - throws an unprecedented wild card into an already unpredictable election. France 24, April 15

China accused of running sleeper cells to sow discord
The Philippines announced an investigation into claims that Beijing has been operating covert “sleeper cells” in its territory and recruiting its own soldiers. The Armed Forces of the Philippines said it was investigating online advertising for “part-time military consultants” from an organisation whose servers are in China. The advertisement, on Facebook and since removed, invited applicants with at least a year of experience working within the armed forces or government departments to write weekly reports on military subjects of topical interest. Beijing dismissed the claims as malicious speculation. “The so-called sleeper cells of China in the Philippines are nothing but fabrication,” the Chinese embassy in Manila said in a statement last week. The Times, April 15

Tobacco firms lobbying MPs to derail smoking phase-out, charity warns
Tobacco firms are lobbying MPs and peers in an effort to derail Rishi Sunak’s flagship policy to phase out smoking, the head of Britain’s biggest cancer charity has said. The prime minister’s landmark legislation - which would bar anyone born after 2009 from buying cigarettes and make England the first country in the world to ban smoking - is due to be debated in parliament for the first time on Tuesday. Michelle Mitchell, the chief executive of Cancer Research UK, said the tobacco industry was working behind the scenes using “a variety of tactics” to try to weaken, delay or even kill off the plans. The government’s tobacco and vapes bill would prevent anyone who is turning 15 this year, or younger, from ever being able to legally buy tobacco products. Mitchell told the Guardian that the “world-leading” legislation was “the most important public health policy shift I can remember” and could “see the blight of tobacco removed” from society for ever. Smoking is the single biggest cause of cancer in the UK and worldwide and causes at least 15 different types of the disease, she said. But the proposals to bring in a smoking ban for the next generation were being privately undermined by tobacco companies. The Guardian, April 15

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Making Information Valuable

Beyond Brexit

Should they stay or should they go?

Middle ground manoeuvers

The political logic of a hard Brexit

The Game of Brexit

EU to profit as banks consider their future

Topographia hibernica: Irish ponder feast or famine

The end of the beginning of the revolution?

Majority see value in overseas students

A glimmer of something in a future that is dark

UK tourism in search of silver lining