Is the UK heading for a general election?

Political black hole: opponents wait for the Conservatives to collapse under the weight of their own contradictions.

To the dismay of Brexiteers a hard-left Labour leader now appears more in tune with the business establishment than the splintered Tories, writes Murray Ritchie.

Slowly but inexorably the divisions over Brexit in the Conservative Party appear to be calling time on Theresa May’s tortured premiership. If she is forced to go, what then for Brexit?

Labour’s decision to seek a customs union with the European Union is just the latest blow to the Tories as they squabble and squirm behind Mrs May’s weak leadership. It is hard not to assume she is fast running out of wriggle room.

When the Tory-supporting British tabloids start reporting the bookies’ odds for her potential successors you know her time may not be long.

The Conservative Party’s unhappy relationship with the European Union plagued Margaret Thatcher, broke John Major, ejected David Cameron from number 10, and made Mrs May Britain’s accidental prime minister.

Now she also seems inevitably destined to be just another Tory PM brought down by Europe.

When is the last time the UK’s captains of industry and commerce publicly hailed a Labour policy in such a crucial area in preference to that of the Conservatives? It has never happened.

She leads (in name at least) a party suffering a remarkable downward spiral in its fortunes. Once the most resilient political party in Europe, the Conservative and Unionist Party is diminishing before our eyes – just like its ageing (mainly male) membership.

In the past two years it has reportedly fallen by 25 per cent as Remainers quit in bitter disillusionment. This is according to Conservative Home, a Tory grassroots website. The party keeps its membership numbers secret but some activists have claimed it is now down to 70,000.

Grant Shapps, former party chairman, has called for transparency in membership numbers even if they are embarrassing. That might be an understatement.

If, indeed, the Tories can muster only 70,000 then this puts them behind even the Scottish National Party (SNP) which claims 118,000, mostly in Scotland obviously, but a recruiting base with less than one-tenth of the UK population.

Labour under Jeremy Corbyn claims more than half a million members, while even the Liberal Democrats boast more than 100,000.

So Brexit continues to divide and damage the Conservatives. As the Tories fight among themselves Labour and the SNP and LibDems are doing their utmost to cause Mrs May even more suffering.

A coalition of Tory rebels and opposition groups could well out-vote the government even if a minority of Brexit non-Tory supporters cross over to help Mrs May.

In the space of the past week Tory troubles have multiplied with Corbyn’s embrace of a customs union. To the dismay of Brexiteers a hard-left Labour leader now appears more in tune with the business establishment than the splintered Tories.

This is an extraordinary development. When is the last time the UK’s captains of industry and commerce publicly hailed a Labour policy in such a crucial area in preference to that of the Conservatives? It has never happened.

Corbyn’s initiative claims to solve the otherwise intractable Irish border problem – to the likely satisfaction of the EU, setting off consternation among Brexit hard-line ministers like Liam Fox and Boris Johnson whose responses have been telling.

Fox claims Corbyn is betraying those who voted to leave the EU (and who had probably never heard of a customs union until Brexit sent a wrecking ball through British political discourse).

Johnson ludicrously suggests the Irish border is no more a problem than the boundaries between two London boroughs. Neither Fox nor Johnson appear able to mount a plausible rejoinder to Corbyn.

The Tories indignantly accuse Corbyn of playing politics as though that was somehow breaking the rules of engagement, almost as if it was wrong for an Opposition leader to oppose.

What better than respecting the result of the referendum by leaving the EU, thereby respecting democracy, but at the same time retaining the obvious trading benefits? If the Commons agrees – and it might well – then an election looms.

With her party spooked again Mrs May now faces an enormous test. It does seem perfectly possible she will lose in the Commons when Labour’s strategy goes to a vote. This in turn could lead eventually to a confidence motion and, if the prime minister loses that, we could be into general election territory.

Corbyn knows most voters want an end to the Brexit nightmare that is paralysing UK politics. He believes a Labour government would provide it.

What better than respecting the result of the referendum by leaving the EU, thereby respecting democracy, but at the same time retaining the obvious trading benefits? If the Commons agrees – and it might well – then an election looms.

With the feuding Tories out of government and left to their civil war, Britain would enter a whole new Brexit scenario under Prime Minister Corbyn. It is by no means an outlandish thought given the polls. What happens then with Brexit is anyone’s guess.

We can assume a Labour Brexit would be a soft affair. Whether Corbyn would want the UK in the EU single market is doubtful.

That would mean freedom of movement and he can only go so far without alienating his supporters in those Brexit-voting constituencies in England and Wales.

But a customs union is another matter. He must know the EU’s genius for negotiating compromises when all seems impossible and he is far more likely to find more friends in Brussels than are the Tories with their long history as the EU’s awkward squad.

Crunch time is coming in the Commons when the true strength of the Remain force will be revealed. With no encouraging sounds coming out of the EU, Mrs May knows she is fast running out of friends.

She must suspect that division over Europe could do for her party what Irish Home Rule did for the Liberals a century ago.

 


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