Original Articles

Game Theory

March 28, 2019

Brexit: A path to yes through a forest of no

The Brexit process is marooned in uncertainty as no democratic method seems able to select a route that is favoured by a parliamentary majority. The problem is not new, however, and game…

Vulnerabilities create a dire situation for Ukraine
The three most critical challenges for Ukraine have been evident for months: a lack of ammunition, a shortage of well-trained troops and dwindling air defenses. Now, as the Kremlin intensifies its assaults and Ukrainian intelligence suggests a major spring or summer Russian offensive, each of those problems is heightening the risk that Moscow’s forces will push through Ukraine’s defenses. The US House speaker encountered stiff resistance from Republicans as he embarked on a complicated strategy to push aid to Ukraine and Israel through Congress. New York Times, April 17

50,000 Russian soldiers confirmed dead by BBC
Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm. In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25 per cent higher than in the first year. BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022. New graves in cemeteries helped provide the names of many soldiers. Our teams also combed through open-source information from official reports, newspapers and social media. More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat - according to our findings - a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost. Russia has declined to comment. BBC news, April 17

UN Security Council examines Palestinian bid for full membership
The United Nations Security Council could vote as early as Thursday on a Palestinian bid for full membership, diplomatic sources said. The UN earlier appealed for $2.8 billion to provide desperately needed aid to three million Palestinians, stressing that tackling looming famine in war-torn Gaza requires not only food but sanitation, water and health facilities. France 24, April 17

Middle East tensions pose risk to bringing down inflation, warns IMF
Rising energy prices and disruption to international shipping risk “stalling” declines in inflation in leading economies, the International Monetary Fund has warned, telling central banks that the “last mile” of their battle against price rises may be the hardest. In its latest assessment of global financial stability, the IMF said markets were vulnerable to another round of volatility if investors continued to push back their expectations for interest rate cuts this year, leading to falls in bond and stock prices. “There is recent evidence that disinflation may have stalled in some countries and that underlying inflation may be persistent in some sectors,” Tobias Adrian, the fund’s financial counsellor, said. The Times, April 17

Israel has sped up settlement-building in East Jerusalem since Gaza war began
Israel’s government has accelerated the construction of settlements across East Jerusalem, with more than 20 projects totalling thousands of housing units having been approved or advanced since the start of the war in Gaza six months ago, planning documents show. Ministries and offices within the Israeli government are behind all the largest and most contentious of the projects, sometimes in association with rightwing nationalist groups with a history of trying to evict Palestinians from their homes in parts of the city. The rapid approval or construction of settlements that are illegal under international law is likely to further damage Israel’s relationship with the Biden admin. The war was triggered by surprise Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians. The Guardian, April 17

UK inflation falls less than expected to 3.2% in March
UK inflation slowed less than expected in March, fuelling the debate over how soon the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates. Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.2 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent in February, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. The figure was higher than the 3.1 per cent forecast by economists polled by Reuters and the BoE. The March inflation rate was still the lowest in two and a half years, with the fall driven by food prices. It was also well below the 41-year high of 11.1 per cent reached in October 2022, and was lower than the US inflation rate for the first time since 2022. Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, declined to 4.2 per cent in March from 4.5 per cent the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline to 4.1 per cent. Financial Times, April 17

Seven jurors chosen for Trump’s Manhattan trial
The daunting work of selecting a jury for the first criminal trial of a former US president gained momentum yesterday, as seven New Yorkers were picked to sit in judgment of Donald Trump. The lawyers quizzed prospective jurors on their ability to remain impartial about a defendant who may be the most polarizing figure in US politics. The wrangling underscored the challenge of picking a jury in a city where Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, is deeply unpopular. If jury selection continues at this pace, opening arguments will probably begin on Monday, the judge overseeing the case said. New York Times, April 17

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Game Theory

Brexit: A path to yes through a forest of no