The politician they called \u201cMister Nobody\u201d now looks more like \u201cThe Man with No Name\u201d.<\/p>\n
In this year of political surprises, few can claim as stunning an upset as Fran\u00e7ois Fillon. On Sunday he was elected to be the presidential candidate for Les R\u00e9publicains (LR), the main conservative party in France, with 66.5 per cent of the vote in a head-to-head second round run-off against Alain Jupp\u00e9, the mayor of Bordeaux.<\/p>\n
The actual presidential election will take place in April and May 2017.<\/p>\n
Despite the Parti Socialiste being in complete disarray, with the incumbent President Hollande at a record low approval rating of 4 per cent and waiting for December to announce whether he will run again, it is wrong to think that the normal preference for \u201calternance\u201d will continue in France and that Sunday\u2019s play-off between Fillon and Jupp\u00e9 was a de-facto<\/em> presidential election.<\/p>\n Emmanuel Macron, the recently resigned minister of the economy, is a rising star and has declared his intention to stand as an independent with a radical approach to fixing France. Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) is waiting in the wings to take up the baton from Brexit and Trump, to pull in the anti-Europe, anti-elite, anti-establishment vote that is as strong in France, with its struggling economy, as it is elsewhere. Mr Trump\u2019s campaign manager, Stephen Bannon, has been linked with the Le Pen\u2019s FN<\/a>. It is even possible that the Socialists could resurrect themselves, depending on President Hollande\u2019s decision to run and, if he declines, their primary elections that are planned for January.<\/p>\n The candidature of Fran\u00e7ois Fillon could not be worse for the prospects of Ms Le Pen. He has run a consistent campaign, recognising that France needs serious reform, and has inherited the mantle of France\u2019s \u201cMrs Thatcher\u201d on this account \u2013 though cultural differences could never allow an accurate allegory. Mr Fillon has a series of considered measures to bring about his reform based on his characteristic pragmatism, as opposed to the ideological rhetoric of Ms Le Pen.<\/p>\n Without Mr Fillon, Ms Le Pen could, with reasonable certainty, expect a place in the second round two-person presidential run-off next May. Her place is now more likely to be occupied by Mr Fillon, depending on how the initial number of left-wing candidates split the centre-left in the primary round vote.<\/p>\n The success of Fran\u00e7ois Fillon was unthinkable a few months ago and is evidence that France, in its turn, is in the throws of a major disruption to its political system.<\/p>\n At the end of October, Mr Fillon had only 12 per cent support in a seven candidate race to become the LR presidential nominee. This campaign had been dominated by Mr Jupp\u00e9 and Nicolas Sarkozy, France\u2019s previous President.\u00a0 Mr Fillon had only about 10 per cent support when he began his campaign, with some considerable raising of eyebrows, in May 2013.<\/p>\n At the time, he was the first mainstream politician to speak candidly about the poor state of the economy and of the values and institutions in France.<\/p>\n