{"id":3303,"date":"2017-07-17T09:59:20","date_gmt":"2017-07-17T09:59:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chief-exec.com\/?p=3303"},"modified":"2017-09-02T11:14:34","modified_gmt":"2017-09-02T11:14:34","slug":"the-interests-of-nations-determine-economic-alliances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/?p=3303","title":{"rendered":"The interests of nations determine economic alliances"},"content":{"rendered":"

Britain be warned: Donald Trump is beginning to understand that US interests are far greater in a market of 500 million people than 80 million, writes Geoff Kitney<\/em>.<\/span><\/h4>\n

So just who are Britain\u2019s best friends in the age of Brexit?<\/p>\n

The answer to this question, like everything else about Brexit, is changing as the real meaning of the change Britain is undergoing begins to become clear.<\/p>\n

When, just over a year ago, Brexiters celebrated their triumph, there was no shortage of \u201cfriends\u201d rushing to declare their admiration for the decision.<\/p>\n

Around the Anglosphere \u2013 which Brexiters trumpeted as the new \u201cclub\u201d in which post-European Union Britain would find a prosperous future \u2013 the cheers were deafening.<\/p>\n

Led by the then United States presidential candidate Donald Trump, praise and promises of great things for a newly liberated Britain came from key conservative political figures in Canada, Australia and New Zealand \u2013 as well as from the right wing in a number of European countries.<\/p>\n

Typical of these responses were those of two former Australian conservative Prime Ministers \u2013 John Howard and Tony Abbott \u2013 who foresaw Brexit as the catalyst for a new age of \u201cAnglosphere\u201d leadership in world affairs, with trade liberalisation as one of its most dramatic impacts.<\/p>\n

It was as though the Brexit process was just a bit of an inconvenience to be got out of the way before a new world order of English-speaking leadership emerged with brave Britain as its standard bearer.<\/p>\n

As recently as last week, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, in London after the G20 meeting in Germany, praised what he called \u201cthe great British spirit\u201d revealed by the Brexit vote, talked of Britain forging a new role in the world and promised that Australia stood ready to do a quick, bold free trade agreement (FTA) with the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n

If such rhetoric could be turned into real deeds the future of post-Brexit Britain would be rosy.<\/p>\n

But the reality behind the rhetoric is somewhat different.<\/p>\n

In fact, Turnbull\u2019s gushing enthusiasm coincided with a series of events which began to create for the first time a clear outline of the scope of the huge challenges facing Britain as it \u201cforges\u201d its new place in the world, outside the EU.<\/p>\n

The publication of the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill \u2013 the first of many bills required to repeal EU laws and replace them with British laws \u2013 was the first big reality check. It is massively complex and, within minutes of its release, exploded into political controversy with warnings that it might not get through the parliament.<\/p>\n

The bill immediately highlighted the deep and growing divisions in the UK over Brexit \u2013 and the immense test of leadership that will be involved in steering the course to the exit. It immediately reinforced the fear that it is a task that Prime Minister Theresa May is not up to.<\/p>\n

Then, hours later, came a deeply controversial concession by the UK to the EU \u2013 that it would, indeed, be the case that Britain would have to pay a very large amount of compensation to the EU for Brexit.<\/p>\n

The bravado of key Brexiters \u2013 such as Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who \u00a0told the EU it could \u201cgo whistle\u201d if it attempted to force the UK to pay an \u201cextortionate\u201d exit price \u2013 suddenly looked foolhardy.<\/p>\n

If, as some analysts have suggested, the price the UK will have to pay could be as high as \u20ac100 billion, the political backlash in Britain could be savage.<\/p>\n

Would public support for Brexit collapse?<\/p>\n

Certainly, it is highly questionable whether UK voters would have chosen Brexit if they had had any idea of how much they will have to pay for it.<\/p>\n

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It was as though the Brexit process was just a bit of an inconvenience to be got out of the way before a new world order of English-speaking leadership emerged with brave Britain as its standard bearer.<\/span><\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Another reality check came in the form of what was both an extraordinary piece of theatre and a masterful piece of diplomatic one-upmanship by French President Emmanuel Macron as he turned the traditional Bastille Day celebrations into a statement about the new European political order.<\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s use of the pomp and ceremony \u2013 and it\u2019s associated military displays \u2013 to flatter and seduce US President Donald Trump was a moment of powerful political symbolism \u2013 an emphatic statement of claim by Macron and France to replace Britain as the anchor in Europe for the transatlantic alliance.<\/p>\n

To an outsider the juxtaposition of Macron\u2019s audacity on the great boulevards of Paris with the quaint but anachronistic pomp and ceremony of Queen Elizabeth II and Spanish King Felipe trotting down The Mall in 18th<\/sup> century, horse-drawn carriages was potent symbolism for what is now happening in the Brexit era.<\/p>\n

The US President who had dismissed Europe as irrelevant and applauded Britain\u2019s decision to escape from its clutches appears to have discovered a new perspective which might have big implications for the UK once it cuts itself off from Europe and has a much diminished role as the US\u2019s anchor in Europe.<\/p>\n

With Trump beginning to understand that US interests are far greater in a market of 500 million people than 80 million, the implications for British hopes of leveraging the special relationship to its economic advantage with a generous UK-US free trade agreement may have to be reassessed.<\/p>\n

The key point about this is that there is a fundamental difference between \u201cfriendships\u201d and \u201cinterests\u201d in the way countries relate to each other.<\/p>\n

Leaders of nations may have friendships with other leaders. But in the end, it is the interests of nations that determine the outcomes in those relationships.<\/p>\n

Britain has invested much in the expectation that \u201cfriendships\u201d with the nations whose mother tongue is English and with which it has deep historical links will be cash in the bank for a modern, independent Britain.<\/p>\n

But history carries less weight than economic and political reality.<\/p>\n

This was reinforced by the actions of other members of the Anglosphere is recent days.<\/p>\n

Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, chose Dublin as his first destination in Europe on his way to the G20 meeting in Germany. In talks with the new Irish Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, Trudeau lamented what he described as \u201cBritain turning inward, driven by anger and frustration\u201d.<\/p>\n

For him, the significance of Brexit was not that it compelled Canada to work for a closer relationship with Britain, but that it meant Canada should be looking to enhance its relationship with a nation like Ireland that he said was \u201copen to the world in a positive, progressive way\u201d.<\/p>\n

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After today’s Dail business joined @JustinTrudeau<\/a> for quick jog through #PhoenixPark<\/a>. Now off to Dublin Castle for evening business pic.twitter.com\/irb1nnmj9I<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Leo Varadkar (@campaignforleo) July 4, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n