{"id":6618,"date":"2020-12-07T15:53:18","date_gmt":"2020-12-07T15:53:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/?p=6618"},"modified":"2022-08-11T09:26:10","modified_gmt":"2022-08-11T09:26:10","slug":"can-america-hold-back-the-covid-19-second-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/?p=6618","title":{"rendered":"Can America hold back the Covid-19 second wave?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><span style=\"color: #333399;\">A vaccine may save 10,000 lives in the United States by the spring, but the number of deaths has already surpassed 282,000 and continues to rise, writes <em>John Egan<\/em><\/span>.<\/h4>\n<p>Approaching the end of the year, the United States rarely sees a day go by without a dreadful record-breaking Covid-19 statistic. Last week the daily infection rate surpassed 200,000 each day for four days in a row. On Thursday the number of US residents to die from Covid-19 was 2,879 in a single day \u2013 a figure close to the number who died in the 2001 9\/11 attacks.<\/p>\n<p>Many US district hospitals are full of cases. Several California counties have reinitiated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2020-12-06\/california-new-stay-at-home-order\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">stay-at-home order<\/a>s that will affect 33 million people. Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), on Friday reminded the country that the latest peak is yet to arrive following social gatherings over the <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/world\/live-news\/coronavirus-pandemic-12-05-20-intl\/h_6c1f5ec5de79ba9f27b8a0925b3a0902\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Thanksgiving holiday<\/a> in late November.<\/p>\n<p>Last week also saw the United Kingdom become the first western country to give regulatory approval for the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Now begins the formidable challenge of connecting the supply chains to deliver the vaccines to those wishing to be vaccinated, starting with those most at risk.<\/p>\n<p>With two shots needed and 31 days in total before immunity can be expected, any vaccine will only have a marginal effect on the coronavirus pandemic over the coming months. It may save 10,000 lives in the US by the spring. But deaths in America yesterday totalled 282,299. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) recently predicted that by December 26 the number would be between 303,000 and 329,000.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">This is a mask, not a political statement. Please wear a mask. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/FactsFirst?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#FactsFirst<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qk8jQCnB3M\">pic.twitter.com\/qk8jQCnB3M<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CNN (@CNN) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNN\/status\/1312943115397926913?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Clearly, measures to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus need to be widely adopted. Last week, President-Elect Joe Biden announced that when he takes the reins of power on January 20, his first step will be to ask Americans <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2020\/12\/03\/politics\/biden-harris-interview-jake-tapper\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">to wear a mask for the first 100 days of his presidency<\/a>. Compliance will be a challenge in a country where wearing a mask is seen by many as a sign of political identity.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6619\" style=\"width: 787px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/US-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6619\" class=\"wp-image-6619\" src=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/US-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1-300x126.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"777\" height=\"327\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/US-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/US-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1-1024x431.png 1024w, https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/US-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1-768x324.png 768w, https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/US-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 777px) 100vw, 777px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-6619\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The dashed line gives the level above which <i>MB Temp<\/i> values are associated with a declining number of daily viral infections<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Here, <em>Chief-Exec.com<\/em> \u00a0presents the latest analysis of the US coronavirus infection data using a method we have <a href=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/?p=6445\">deployed<\/a> based on how the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus uses the energy it takes from infected individuals to fuel its propagation.<\/p>\n<p>In this latest analysis, we have shortened the window through which we simulate the epidemic from a 50-day interval to 25 days, which is the shortest feasible to avoid a loss of clarity due to random noise inherent in the data. With this more magnified view, taking a picture every five days, the model parameter <a href=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/?p=6413\"><em>MB Temp<\/em><\/a> is seen to be important.<\/p>\n<p><em>MB Temp<\/em> effectively provides a temperature measurement that can be associated with the virus itself \u2013 not its infected host. Keeping the virus cool attracts the energy that fuels its propagation, in much the same way as keeping a car engine cool enables the car to run. An overheated engine will become less efficient up to the point it ceases to function. The above graph demonstrates that this same thermodynamic consequence may well apply to the virus.<\/p>\n<p>Previously, we have described how <em>MB Temp<\/em> values appear to switch between <a href=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/?p=6251\">two distinct phases<\/a>, like a liquid and a gas. In the latest analysis there appears to be a threshold level for <em>MB Temp<\/em>, at about 111 <a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>, above which the daily infection rate begins to decline.<\/p>\n<p>Mask wearing and other measures, such a social distancing, together limit the ability of the coronavirus to propagate. Finding new hosts to infect enables the virus population as a whole to cool down, like the molecules of a gas expanding into an empty space. This is what the US needs to do to raise <em>MB Temp<\/em> above, and to stay above, the dashed threshold to reduce viral propagation.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis shows that this works. Take the case of the UK pictured below, for example.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6621\" style=\"width: 787px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/UK-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6621\" class=\"wp-image-6621\" src=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/UK-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1-300x127.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"777\" height=\"328\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/UK-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1-300x127.png 300w, https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/UK-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1-1024x432.png 1024w, https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/UK-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1-768x324.png 768w, https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/UK-Covid-19-MB-Temp-1.png 1131w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 777px) 100vw, 777px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-6621\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The dashed line gives the level above which <i>MB Temp<\/i> values are associated with a declining number of daily viral infections<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Quite recently the UK experienced an alarming rise in the number of coronavirus infections, following the summer months where the epidemic appeared to be under control. This second wave now appears to be attenuated through a range of restrictions and confinement measures that have been assembled simply to limit opportunities for the virus to propagate. <em>MB Temp<\/em> has passed through the important threshold.<\/p>\n<p>Precisely the same points can be made regarding the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Basic_reproduction_number\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">R<sub>0<\/sub> reproduction number<\/a>. It is likely that this correlates with <em>MB Temp<\/em> which is derived through a different analysis of the same data. The merits of the thermodynamic analysis used here remain to be determined, but may well reside in how the physics may help explain the epidemiology.<\/p>\n<p>The picture presented for the UK above is also visible in analyses for France and Germany, which will be presented in a subsequent article in this series. All three countries have successfully initiated a decline of the dangerous second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections, and the healthcare consequences of the Covid-19 disease. These outcomes remain tentative and dependent on not relaxing personal behaviours to ensure that <em>MB Temp<\/em> does not fall.<\/p>\n<p>These European nations show what can be done and what needs to be done for the US to regain control over its potentially catastrophic situation.<\/p>\n<p>Vaccines are providing a light at the end of the tunnel, but the world will remain in the tunnel for at least another six months and, today, the situation in the US is approaching critical. Yet the most recent analysis shown above does point to a rising <em>MB Temp<\/em> and, with a more concerted effort, the inversion of the infection growth curve is realisable.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4>Notes<\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> <em>MB Temp<\/em> is estimated from the best fit of a simulated epidemic to infection data at different cycle times. This temperature is not recorded in units of Centigrade or Fahrenheit as it specifies a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Maxwell%E2%80%93Boltzmann_distribution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Maxwell-Boltzmann statistical distribution<\/a> for the energy in the virus as if the virus were moving through society in a manner analogous to the movement of gas molecules in a container. As such, it is proportional to the square root of the temperature measured on an <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Absolute_temperature_scale\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">absolute scale<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4>For related articles on <em>Chief-Exec.com <\/em>: <a href=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/?tag=covid-19-simulation\">Click Here<\/a><\/h4>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-508\" src=\"http:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Egan-VB2-300x146.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"146\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Egan-VB2-300x146.jpg 300w, https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Egan-VB2-768x373.jpg 768w, https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Egan-VB2.jpg 804w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<h6>Headline Photo Credit: Corona Borealis Studio\/Shutterstock.com<\/h6>\n<h6>Data sources for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections are:-<br \/>\nEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)<br \/>\nJohns Hopkins University<br \/>\nThis data is retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">OurWorldInData.org<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A vaccine may save 10,000 lives in the United States by the spring, but the number of deaths has already surpassed 282,000 and continues to rise, writes John Egan. Approaching the end&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":6622,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[181],"tags":[176,182,40,74],"class_list":["post-6618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid-19-series","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19-simulation","tag-health","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6618"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6618\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6633,"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6618\/revisions\/6633"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chief-exec.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}