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Lebanon’s state agency reports Israeli shelling after ceasefire begins
Lebanon’s state news agency reported Israeli shelling on several towns in southern Lebanon after the ceasefire came into effect at midnight local time. The towns of Khiam and Debbine were struck by artillery fire, NNA reported, adding that Israeli overflights were also ongoing in the Bekaa Valley and other parts of southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Beirut’s skies convulsed with celebratory gunfire and heavy RPG launches in the moments after the 10-day truce came into effect. Pro-Hizbollah supporters gathered in the southern suburbs of the capital, waving the group’s signature yellow flags and hoisting up photos of its leaders. Local media showed traffic heading to southern Lebanon building up. It was not clear how many residents of southern Lebanon would return home since the last main bridge connected north to south was destroyed by Israel on Thursday. Financial Times, April 17

Macron, Starmer chair meeting to mull European post-war mission in Strait of Hormuz
French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Friday will chair a meeting of allies to consider sending a multinational force to ensure security and free-flowing trade in the Strait of Hormuz once the current conflict between Iran and the US and Israel ends. Iran imposed the blockade on the critical shipping bottleneck as soon as the US and Israel launched the war against the Islamic republic on February 28, leading to a surge in global energy prices. Even with a shaky ceasefire in place, the US is now imposing its own blockade on Iranian ports. European leaders are now worried that if the blockade continues, consumers will feel the effects through higher inflation, food shortages and flight cancellations as jet fuel runs out. The leaders joining Starmer and Macron from 1200 GMT for the meeting - which will mostly be held via video - are due to call for a return to full freedom of navigation and address the economic consequences of the blockade. France 24, April 17

Cuts to overseas aid will worsen shocks to global economy, David Miliband says
Cuts to overseas aid by countries, including the US and the UK, risk stoking global economic instability amid the humanitarian crisis resulting from the Iran war, David Miliband has said. The former British foreign secretary and head of the International Rescue Committee said the US “abandoning” of its aid programme under Donald Trump would worsen shocks to the global economy that would impact poor and wealthy countries alike. Miliband also said he regretted that Keir Starmer’s government was slashing the UK’s aid budget, because supporting the world’s poorest was morally the right thing to do and a “good investment for Britain”. “An untended humanitarian crisis is an incubator of political instability. We are in a more connected world than ever before,” said the former Labour minister. “The Iran war shows how connected we are, but the connections go the other way [from poor to rich countries], too.” Speaking to the Guardian at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington, Miliband said the Middle East conflict would increase global poverty and risked displacing millions of people. The Guardian, April 17

Starmer sacks top civil servant over Peter Mandelson vetting failure
Sir Keir Starmer appointed Lord Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to the United States even though he had failed government security vetting. The prime minister, who insisted for months that “due process had been followed” and that Mandelson had been cleared for the role by the security services, was accused by the Conservatives of misleading parliament. Vetting officers had recommended that the disgraced peer should not be given the job but this was overruled by officials in the Foreign Office, who rubberstamped the appointment. On Thursday evening Starmer sacked the top civil servant at the Foreign Office over the vetting scandal. Sir Oliver Robbins lost the confidence of the prime minister and Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, it is understood. The Times, April 17

Finance ministers and top bankers raise serious concerns about Mythos AI model
Finance ministers, central bankers and financiers have expressed serious concerns about a powerful new AI model they fear could undermine the security of financial systems. The development of the Claude Mythos model by Anthropic has led to crisis meetings, after it found vulnerabilities in many major operating systems. Experts say it potentially has an unprecedented ability to identify and exploit cyber-security weaknesses - though others caution further testing is needed to properly understand its capabilities. Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne told the BBC that Mythos had been discussed extensively at the International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington DC this week. "Certainly, it is serious enough to warrant the attention of all the finance ministers," he said. "The difference is that the Strait of Hormuz - we know where it is and we know how large it is … the issue that we're facing with Anthropic is that it's the unknown, unknown." BBC news, April 17

US private credit firm backs loans for World Cup ticket flipping
A boutique private credit firm has its eyes on a lucrative trade ahead of the Fifa World Cup this summer: lending to an online platform that aims to flip tickets of sought-after football matches for large profits. Eagle Point Credit Management has recently increased its $50mn financing package to Sports Illustrated Tickets - a sister company of the sports magazine - to help fund its plan to purchase World Cup tickets and resell them with huge mark-ups. The profit potential has convinced Eagle Point to sign off the loan, which amounts to the total cost of the tickets, meaning that if Sports Illustrated buys $1mn worth of World Cup tickets, it would lend a full $1mn. “Normally you would never lend at 100 per cent [loan-to-cost],” said Thomas Majewski, founder and managing partner of Connecticut-based Eagle Point, which manages $14bn in assets. “But World Cup tickets are typically worth up to three times their face value, so the reality is that we are lending at a 35 per cent loan-to-value ratio.” Financial Times, Aprill 17

Gulf states turn to private deals in $10bn wartime borrowing spree
Gulf monarchies have discreetly raised almost $10bn in private sales of bonds this month in their first international borrowing since the Iran war delivered a major hit to their economies. Abu Dhabi has sold $4.5bn, Qatar $3bn and Kuwait $2bn in private placements of US dollar bonds since the start of April, sidestepping public markets where they typically issued debt before the war but where borrowing costs can be more uncertain. The sales highlight how Gulf states have been using a tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran as an opportunity to quickly raise money, as they tot up the costs of lost oil and gas revenues because of the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage from Iranian strikes. Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, is raising “a little bit of extra cash just in case,” one banker familiar with its debt sales said. The governments of Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Kuwait did not respond to requests for comment. Financial Times, April 16

Britain preparing for food shortages as Iran war bites
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found. Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the food industry. Senior officials - including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence - have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”. The Times has been told the reasonable worst-case scenario prepared for the session, run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached. The Times, April 16

Nato in ‘turf war’ with EU over defence spending
The EU and Nato are at odds in what officials describe as a “turf war” over how to manage an extra $1tn a year rearmament drive prompted by Donald Trump’s threats to European security. The US-led military alliance, which has underpinned Europe’s security since the second world war, has long opposed Brussels taking on defence powers. But the US president’s demands on allies to invest more in their own militaries have forced an overhaul of arms production policy - an area where the EU has greater expertise than Nato. “There’s a turf war over defence industrial policy,” said one of the officials. “This is about who manages the production scale-up, and what impact that has on the weapons Europe will be using in the future.” One key aspect of the debate is what role US weaponry should play in the rearmament push, with Nato opposed to the EU’s “Buy European” approach across its wider industrial policy strategy. Financial Times, April 16

Turkey orders mass arrests over online praise for recent school shootings
Turkish police said on Thursday they had ordered dozens of arrests for people accused of posting controversial content on social media after two deadly school shootings this week. “Arrest orders were issued for 83 individuals found to have engaged in posts and activities praising crime and criminals and negatively affecting public order, and legal action has been taken against them,” the police said in a statement. In addition, access to 940 social media accounts has been blocked, and 93 Telegram groups have been shut down, it added. On Tuesday, a student opened fire at his former high school in the Siverek district in the southeast, wounding 16 people including students before killing himself. France 24, April 16

UK economy grew faster than expected ahead of Iran war
The UK economy saw its biggest monthly rise in February in more than two years, official figures show. The Office for National Statistics said the economy grew by a faster-than-expected 0.5 per cent, while it revised its estimate for January up to 0.1 per cent after previously saying the start of the year had seen no growth. The figures cover a period before the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran on 28 February, which has caused a major energy shock and experts warn risks a global recession if it is prolonged. This week the International Monetary Fund cut its estimate for UK growth this year, warning it was set to be the hardest hit of the world's advanced economies. The IMF said it expected the UK to grow by 0.8 per cent this year, down from the 1.3 per cent prediction it had made in January before hostilities began. The Fund said the downgrade was due to the impact of the war, with fewer interest rate cuts now predicted and an expectation that the impact of higher energy prices will linger into next year. BBC news, April 16

Effect of ‘gamechanger’ Alzheimer’s drugs ‘trivial’, review concludes
Drugs that have been hailed as a gamechanger for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease make no noticeable difference to patients, according to an extensive review. The analysis of clinical trials in people with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia found that the effects of anti-amyloid drugs on cognition and dementia severity over 18 months were “trivial”, with improvements in functional ability “small at best”. The verdict is a blow to the new wave of drugs that are designed to slow Alzheimer’s by clearing clumps of amyloid protein that build up in the brain. Amyloid plaques are a hallmark of Alzheimer’s disease, along with another protein called tau which forms toxic tangles in neurons. The Cochrane review drew on gold standard methods to assess data from published clinical trials, but was criticised by some researchers and charities for combining results from older, failed drugs with those from newer, more effective medicines. The Guardian, April 16