Brexit Bulletin

March 28, 2019

Brexit: A path to yes through a forest of no

The Brexit process is marooned in uncertainty as no democratic method seems able to select a route that is favoured by a parliamentary majority. The…

Leadership, or the sad lack of it

Complex language of trade falls on deaf ears

Brexit is now all about the art of the possible

Maxwell’s Brexit: A case of intangible destruction

Brexit reality: the UK is part of Europe

Political peace in the UK is unlikely

A mess from which there is no apparent escape

Is the fog of Brexit beginning to clear?

November 19, 2018

Ideologues gamble with a nation’s future

The idea of ‘pure sovereignty’ which Brexiters argue would be possible for Britain outside the European Union is an unattainable dream, writes Geoff Kitney. Who…

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Labour would win EU elections, poll shows
The Labour party would emerge as the biggest UK force in the European Parliament in British EU elections, according to new projections which show a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. Labour would return 19 MEPs to Brussels in an EU election which will need to be held next month if Theresa May cannot pass her Brexit deal through parliament before May 22. The Tories would be in second with 12 seats, and the Brexit party led by Mr Farage, on 10 MEPs, according to the projections. The UK Independence Party would be in fourth place with nine seats. The projections are the first time the European Parliament has published new MEP seat forecasts to include the UK. Analysts have warned the estimates for the UK are more unpredictable than most as formal campaigning for the elections has yet to begin in Britain. Financial Times, April 18

Brexit Party surges into European poll lead
Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party has surged into the lead for the European elections, according to two opinion polls. Having formed only in January, the party has leapfrogged Labour and the Tories and eaten into Ukip’s support. A YouGov poll for The Times put the Brexit Party on 23 per cent, Labour on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 17 per cent. Last week it was on 15 per cent, Labour was on 24 per cent and the Tories were on 16 per cent. Many former Ukip voters appear to have followed Mr Farage away from the party he had led in three separate stints. Ukip has languished in seventh place on 6 per cent since the launch of the Brexit Party. The Times, April 18

‘No chance of US-UK deal’ if border returns
Nancy Pelosi told a special sitting of the Dáil that there was “no chance” of a US-UK trade deal if Brexit undermined the Good Friday agreement and led to a hard border. The Speaker of the US House of Representatives addressed TDs, senators, former politicians and dignitaries in the chamber yesterday as part of the Dáil’s centenary celebrations. The Democrat, the third most powerful figure in Washington, called the 1997 peace agreement a “beacon of hope” and repeated earlier assertions that it must not be weakened. “I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, we must ensure that nothing happens in the Brexit discussions that imperils the Good Friday accord, including, but not limited to, the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland,” she said. The Times, April 18

Sturgeon: Independence would be nothing like Brexit disorder
Nicola Sturgeon has said that there would be “nothing disorderly” about Scotland leaving the United Kingdom as she prepared to outline her plan for a second independence referendum. The first minister was branded “deluded” by unionists who said that independence would be “monumentally more complicated” than Brexit. The Fraser of Allander Institute, an economic think-tank, said yesterday that Scotland would suffer a recession if there were a disorderly Brexit. Unionists claim that the Brexit chaos should demonstrate to nationalists that such constitutional upheaval was divisive and economically ruinous. The Times, April 18

New Zealand’s environment is in serious trouble
A report on the state of New Zealand’s environment has painted a bleak picture of catastrophic biodiversity loss, polluted waterways and the destructive rise of the dairy industry and urban sprawl. Environment Aotearoa is the first major environmental report in four years, and was compiled using data from Statistics New Zealand and the environment ministry. It presents a sobering summary of a country that is starkly different from the pristine landscape promoted in the “Pure New Zealand” marketing campaign that lures millions of tourists every year. It found New Zealand is now considered one of the most invaded countries in the world, with 75 animal and plant species having gone extinct since human settlement. The once-vibrant bird life has fared particularly badly, with 90 per cent of seabirds and 80 per cent of shorebirds threatened with or at risk of extinction. The Guardian, April 18

North Korea test fires tactical guided weapon
North Korea says it has test-fired a new “tactical guided weapon” with a “powerful warhead”, the first such test since talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un ended without agreement. State media gave few details, but analysts say this is unlikely to be a return to the long-range missile tests seen as a threat to the US. A similar test last November was viewed as an attempt to pressure the US. There has been little progress in nuclear talks since the last summit. In February, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un met in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi to discuss denuclearisation, but discussions broke down and both leaders left abruptly. Last week, Mr Kim said Mr Trump needed to have the “right attitude” for talks to continue. BBC news, April 18

Trump and America brace for release of redacted Mueller report
Almost two years after Robert Mueller was appointed special counsel to investigate potential ties between Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and Russia, the American people will finally read his report on Thursday – albeit in redacted form. The public release of the 400-page Mueller report marks a significant moment for a country on tenterhooks over what the former FBI director has uncovered. It marks the first time that US citizens and members of Congress will be able to hear from the special counsel directly rather than through the lens of his Department of Justice bosses or the media. In the lead-up to the report’s release, the White House was in a defensive crouch. Justice department officials provided lawyers close to Trump with briefings on the content of the report in advance of its release, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, assisting the White House in the preparation of a rebuttal to a document that Trump previously claimed had “totally exonerated” him. The Guardian, April 18

Regulator calls for law change to end Big Four dominance of UK auditing
The UK’s competition watchdog called on Thursday for rapid legislation to end the dominance of the Big Four accounting firms and address problems of poor working practices and conflicts of interest in the scandal-hit audit sector. The Competition and Markets Authority stopped short of demanding a full break-up of Deloitte, EY, KPMG and PwC following strong criticisms of the firms after a series of auditing failures, including of BHS and Carillion. However, it recommended that the firms split their operations by separating their audit businesses from their consultancy arms. And, in an effort to increase competition in the audit sector, the CMA also said that UK-listed companies should be required to use two audit firms to check their accounts, with one being from outside the big four. Financial Times, April 18

‘Scandal’ as 49,000 students go missing
Ministers have been urged to confront the “national scandal” of off-rolling after figures showed that more than 49,000 children had stopped their secondary school education without explanation. The Education Policy Institute think-tank found that 49,100 pupils who started secondary school in England in 2012 – one in 12 – left before 2017 for no apparent reason. It categorised them as “unexplained pupil exits”. Researchers fear that many have been off-rolled. Unlike exclusion, where there is a formal legal process, off-rolling is an opaque practice. Usually schools persuade or pressure the parents of disruptive or academically weak children to remove them “voluntarily”. The school does not have to record a reason for the departure. The Times, April 18

Macron’s plan to close ENA shakes French elite
French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to abolish the Ecole Nationale d’Administration – the elite postgraduate institution that counts presidents, prime ministers and chief executives among its alumni – was always going to be divisive. For some, it is a long overdue reform in an unequal society; for others, it is a damaging act of populism. “It’s too easy to close ENA to please a few idiots who want to scratch your car,” said one of the many business leaders to have emerged from the school. Whichever view is correct, the “suppression” of ENA – a proposal leaked from the text of a presidential speech to the nation that was postponed when Notre-Dame cathedral caught fire on Monday – is an eye-catching political gesture typical of Mr Macron. Financial Times, April 18

France invites designs for new Notre Dame spire
France has invited the world’s architects to submit designs for rebuilding the emblematic spire that collapsed during the blaze at Notre Dame. The competition was announced by Édouard Philippe, the prime minister, amid debate over whether a restored cathedral should also be modernised. It has been rebuilt and modernised several times in its 800 years of history, and the spire was a 19th-century addition to the 13th-century building. Mr Philippe said the competition would settle the question, at least as far as the spire was concerned. “It will end the debate on whether we need an identical spire, or a new spire adapted to the techniques and stakes of our era.” The Times, April 18

Charges over climate change train protest
Three people have been charged over an Extinction Rebellion protest where activists climbed on top of a train. A man glued himself to the side of a Docklands Light Railway service in Canary Wharf while a man and woman had to be removed from the roof on Wednesday. Two men and a woman have been charged with obstructing trains or carriages on the railway by an unlawful act. Police have made nearly 400 arrests in London over the protests. BBC news, April 18

Half of England owned by less than 1% of the population
Half of England is owned by less than 1 per cent of its population, according to new data shared with the Guardian that seeks to penetrate the secrecy that has traditionally surrounded land ownership. The findings, described as “astonishingly unequal”, suggest that about 25,000 landowners – typically members of the aristocracy and corporations – have control of half of the country. The figures show that if the land were distributed evenly across the entire population, each person would have almost an acre – an area roughly the size of Parliament Square in central London. Major owners include the Duke of Buccleuch, the Queen, several large grouse moor estates, and the entrepreneur James Dyson. The Guardian, April 17

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