Brexit Bulletin

June 22, 2020

Brexit trade wars: beware corporate America’s power

The idea that the UK after Brexit could expect to get some sort of inside running for a beneficial trade agreement with the US needs…

Nationalists of a very different hue

Brexit and the danger of partisan divisions

Brexit: Government of the people by the people for the people?

Is the United Kingdom safe in Boris Johnson’s hands?

The Dumb, the Democrat and the Expert

Voters to hold their collective nose and vote tactically

From Berlin to Brexit: A short history of European walls

An ‘economic competitor’ on the EU’s doorstep?

September 23, 2019

A fragmented future awaits a United Kingdom

Britain is being humiliated internationally because of Brexit – and there might be worse to come. There is now a clear possibility that Britain as…

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Rishi Sunak serves up a £30bn rescue
Rishi Sunak pumped another £30 billion into the economy yesterday as it was revealed that the bill for government support since the pandemic now dwarfs last year’s health spending. The job-saving package of tax breaks, consumer discounts and wage subsidies means that the chancellor has announced plans to spend up to £188.7bn on tackling the immediate crisis and nursing the economy through its effects. That equates to 9.4 per cent of GDP and far exceeds other Whitehall budgets. Health and social care spending in 2019-20 was £140bn, for example, of which NHS day-to-day spending in England was £120bn. A further £122bn in the form of loans and deferred taxes has been injected into the economy since the start of the crisis, according to Treasury figures released yesterday. Mr Sunak was unapologetic, warning MPs that more would be needed to address “profound economic challenges” caused by the virus and lockdown. The Times, July 9

Millions of UK jobs still at risk from pandemic
Millions of jobs in some of the UK’s hardest hit sectors, such as retail, are still at risk despite chancellor Rishi Sunak’s support for employers, according to business leaders and union bosses. Executives had wanted the government to extend some of the programmes that have helped support companies through the pandemic, such as business grants, rates relief and the state guaranteed loan schemes that have seen banks lend £45bn to more than 1m businesses. Adam Marshall, director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said that over the coming weeks the chancellor would also need to address the ticking clock on a number of other concerns – including the impending end of key business loan schemes. Mr Sunak offered targeted support for hospitality and tourism but not retail or manufacturing, despite the many job cuts expected in those industries. Business chiefs were also disappointed that there was not a blanket cut to value added tax, broader help with national insurance contributions or a cut in income tax. Financial Times, July 9

Care homes face staffing ‘black hole’ with new immigration bill
Care homes could face a staffing “black hole” because of the impact of the government’s immigration bill, care leaders have warned. The Cavendish Coalition – which represents UK health and social care groups – says it is gravely concerned. The current proposals would not allow enough overseas workers to be recruited, it has warned. The government said immigration is “not the answer to the challenges in the social care sector”. Leaders of 37 national care organisations, including the NHS Confederation, have signed the letter to the prime minister. They say the proposed post-Brexit bill could have a damaging effect on care homes and other social care services, especially as the nation heads towards winter – which could bring further challenges due to the coronavirus pandemic. The Immigration Bill, which has been given initial approval by MPs, repeals EU freedom of movement and introduces a new framework for who can come to live in the UK. BBC news, July 9

Supreme Court to rule on Trump tax returns
The US Supreme Court is set to decide whether President Donald Trump’s tax returns and other financial records can be examined by Congress and prosecutors – a ruling with potentially huge political consequences. Mr Trump refuses to share documents concerning his fortune and business. His lawyers argue he enjoys total immunity while in office. The ruling will test that claim and has implications on how far US lawmakers can scrutinise the president. Even a ruling in Congress’s favour would not necessarily make Mr Trump’s tax returns public before his bid for re-election in November. Mr Trump, who made his money as a property developer, is the first president since Richard Nixon in the 1970s not to have made his tax returns public. He calls the investigation into his tax affairs a “witch hunt” and sees the congressional case as a device to harass him politically. BBC news, July 9

US coronavirus cases jump by one-day record
The US had its biggest one-day increase in coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, recording 62,000 infections on Wednesday in a sign that a series of new restrictions has failed to snuff out the outbreak. The 62,117 new cases shattered Friday’s record of 57,562 and took the nationwide tally to more than 3m cases since the pandemic began, according to the Covid Tracking Project. It was accompanied by data showing that the number of fatalities was also beginning to rise after weeks of trending lower. The White House has sought to temper concerns over the month-long outbreak in the US south and west by noting it has not been accompanied by a rise in coronavirus-related deaths, which was the hallmark of earlier phases of the pandemic. But according to the Covid Tracking Project, the US recorded about 900 deaths on Wednesday, the second day of such numbers in a row, up from just 242 on Monday. Texas, which recorded about 10,000 new cases for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, reported 98 deaths that day, a sharp increase from a record 60 tallied on Tuesday. Financial Times, July 9

United Airlines to furlough up to 36,000 staff
United Airlines says up to 36,000 of its workers could be furloughed due to the coronavirus pandemic. That amounts to almost half of the company’s total US-based frontline workforce. “Throughout this crisis, we have been honest and direct with you about our need to right-size our workforce to match travel demand,” it said. The carrier said it expects capacity for this month to be down 75 per cent compared to July last year. The company also said that not everyone who receives a warning letter will definitely be furloughed, with the final number depending on whether trading conditions improve and how many workers accept offers of redundancy and temporary leave. “Our primary goal throughout this crisis has been to ensure United – and the jobs it supports – are here when customers are flying again,” United Airlines said in a statement to employees. BBC news, July 9

Queen’s secret correspondence to be released
Previously secret correspondence between the Queen and former Australian governor general Sir John Kerr surrounding the dismissal of Gough Whitlam will be released in full on Tuesday morning, Australia’s national archives has confirmed. The decision will guarantee the public will be able to access the entirety of the so-called palace letters, a series of more than 200 exchanges between the Queen, her private secretary and Kerr, the then-governor general, in the lead-up to the 1975 dismissal of Whitlam, the then-Australian prime minister. The National Archives of Australia has spent more than a month working through the documents following a momentous high court decision finding it was wrong for the archives to withhold the letters from historian Jenny Hocking. The Guardian, July 9

Cummings tours Britain’s top-security sites to prepare for sweeping military reforms
Dominic Cummings will tour five of Britain’s most highly classified national security sites as part of plans to reform the military. The prime minister’s chief adviser has already visited MI6 and MI5 in London, and within weeks is expected to visit the Special Air Service headquarters in Hereford and the Special Boat Service command post in Poole, Dorset. According to “internal correspondence” seen by The Sydney Morning Herald, the tour will also include Defence Intelligence, the military intelligence agency stationed at RAF Wyton in Cambridgeshire, and the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down near Salisbury, which develops measures to counter chemical and biological weapons. The Times, July 9

Unis receive record number of applications
A record 40.5 per cent of all 18-year-olds in the UK have applied to go to university, with numbers rising significantly during lockdown, according to the university admissions service Ucas. It is the first time that more than four out of 10 students (40.5 per cent) had applied by 30 June to go to university and the figures will offer some comfort to universities bracing themselves for the Covid-19 aftershock. At the same point in the admissions cycle last year, the figure was 38.9 per cent, and Ucas points out that between mid-March and the end of June, when the pandemic was at its height in the UK, applications rose by 17 per cent. Applications for nursing are up 15 per cent year on year, and Ucas says that for the first time more than a quarter (25.4 per cent) of young people from disadvantaged backgrounds had applied to university or college by 30 June, the final deadline to apply for up to five courses simultaneously. The Guardian, July 9

Sedwill payoff as he decries attacks on officials
Boris Johnson signed off on a £248,189 golden goodbye for Sir Mark Sedwill, the outgoing cabinet secretary, raising questions about whether his departure was voluntary. The payment was for “compensation” for loss of office after the prime minister and Sir Mark claimed that he stood down voluntarily from his role as head of the civil service. Sir Mark’s salary is £215,000. In a letter to the permanent secretary in the Cabinet Office, released last night, Mr Johnson said that he was authorising the payment “in consideration of his employment position”. Sir Mark, 55, announced his early departure last month after two years in charge, making him the shortest-serving cabinet secretary in history. His departure followed clashes Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s chief adviser, and hostile briefings to the media about his handling of the coronavirus crisis. The Times, July 9

Aviation shutdown costs Rolls-Royce £3bn
Rolls-Royce has burned through £3 billion of cash during the months of the pandemic as it counted the cost of the shutdown of the commercial aviation market. With borrowings mounting for a company whose credit rating has fallen to junk status, the company admitted that it would need to raise money probably with a share issue and the sale of its Spanish aerospace subsidiary ITP Aero. Warren East, chief executive, said that planning was at an early stage, that no decisions had been made and that for the short-term it had signed up to a new £2bn loan facility, partly guaranteed by the government agency UK Export Finance, which gives the company £8bn of available financing. The Times, July 9

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