Brexit Bulletin

September 4, 2019

What dark forces lie behind the Brexit façade?

Boris Johnson last night turfed out 21 Tory rebels. Now he is preparing to put British democracy to one of its greatest tests, writes Geoff…

Can Boris Johnson tame the Brexit monster?

Boris Johnson’s deceit maketh the man

‘Free’ trade with the US could prove costly

Boris for PM offers succour north of the Border

May resigns – and Johnson is waiting in the wings

Brexit: A path to yes through a forest of no

Leadership, or the sad lack of it

Complex language of trade falls on deaf ears

January 31, 2019

Brexit is now all about the art of the possible

Theresa May’s current political strategy seriously risks running into a dead-end from which it will only be possible for a new prime minister, taking a…

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EU open to independent Scotland, says SNP
SNP ministers say a path to EU membership has opened to an independent Scotland amid a huge change in attitude from Europe after Brexit. Mike Russell, the constitutional relations secretary, believes Scotland would “walk into” the European bloc if referendum voters backed secession. A poll has suggested that a second referendum on Scottish independence and one on the Northern Irish border issue have widespread support among voters on the UK mainland. A BMG survey for The Independent found that 60 per cent backed another vote on Scottish independence when the “don’t knows” were removed. Yesterday Herman Van Rompuy, former president of the European Council, said that EU countries would show a sympathetic ear to Scotland, where 62 per cent of people voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, should it apply for membership. Before the independence vote in 2014 one of the potential stumbling blocks for Scotland to rejoin the EU was perceived to be the potential veto of Spain, because of worries about its own secessionists in Catalonia. Last year it was reported that Spain would no longer object to Scotland joining the EU as an independent nation if the secession process were legally binding. The Times, September 16

Huge progress on border talks, insists Johnson
Boris Johnson declared Britain would break out of the European Union just like “the Incredible Hulk” and there was a “very good conversation” going on about the Irish border. The UK prime minister made the comments in advance of meetings today with Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, in Luxembourg. Mr Johnson told The Mail on Sunday he was “very confident” of getting a divorce deal at an EU summit on October 17, in time for Brexit on October 31. But his optimism is not universally shared, and a senior EU diplomat said there was “nothing tangible so far” in terms of progress. Mr Johnson said “a huge amount of progress is being made” about the key sticking point in the Brexit deal, the issue of the Irish border. The Times, September 16

Only half of UK unis ready for no-deal Brexit
Four out of five British universities are worried about the impact of crashing out of the EU without a deal, as vice-chancellors look to stockpile essential supplies ranging from chemicals to toilet paper. A survey of members by Universities UK, which represents more than 130 higher education institutions, found that 80 per cent of those responding said they were either “very” or “extremely” concerned about the impact no-deal Brexit will have. While more than half of universities said they were fully or very prepared for no deal, the remainder admitted they were only “slightly” prepared. Vice-chancellors who spoke to the Guardian said they were most immediately concerned about shortages of essential chemicals and gases for their laboratories, while others were looking to stockpile bulk items such as food and toilet paper. “If we run out of loo roll then we have to close and send everyone home, it’s as simple as that,” said one vice-chancellor, who added that such a scenario was unlikely. The Guardian, September 16

Illegal work practices ‘far too common’
About one in 20 workers does not get paid holidays, while one in 10 does not get a payslip, according to a report by the Resolution Foundation think-tank. It found workers over the age of 65 are most likely to not have paid holidays, despite a legal entitlement to 28 days a year, or pro-rota for part-timers. And workers aged 25 and under are twice as likely to be underpaid the minimum wage that any other age group. The think-tank says its findings reveal the extent of illegal labour practices. Workers in hotels and restaurants miss out out more than others on legal workplace entitlements, the report says. Meanwhile, those in small firms, employing fewer than 25, are most likely to not get payslips and paid leave, as are workers on zero-hours and temporary contracts, the Resolution Foundation said. BBC news, September 16

Oil prices soar after attacks halve Saudi output
Oil prices rose as much as 20 per cent to above $71.00 a barrel – the biggest percentage spike in almost three decades – as markets reopened after an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure at the weekend cut more than half the country’s production. The rally, which followed news that Saudi Arabia’s oil production is expected to be well below maximum capacity for weeks, set oil on course for one of its biggest one-day gains as traders worried over the extent of the outage. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, gained almost $12 to trade as high as $71.95 a barrel, before easing back to $66.75 by early afternoon in Asia, still up by almost 11 per cent. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, was up by as much as 16 per cent to $63.64 a barrel before paring back these gains to $60.14 or 9.7 per cent up. Financial Times, September 16

OxyContin maker files for bankruptcy
US drug-maker Purdue Pharma has filed for bankruptcy and announced a $10bn (£8bn) plan to settle thousands of lawsuits that accuse the company’s prescription painkiller, OxyContin, of fuelling the deadly opioids crisis. The company, owned by the billionaire Sackler family, faces more than 2,000 lawsuits, including actions from nearly all US states and many local governments, which allege Purdue falsely promoted OxyContin by downplaying the risk of addiction. The public health crisis claimed the lives of nearly 400,000 people between 1999 and 2017, according to the latest US data. The chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, made on Sunday night in White Plains, New York, is designed to halt the lawsuits. Under the proposed settlement, which is backed by about half the states and thousands of local governments that are suing Purdue, the Sacklers will hand the firm’s assets over to a trust controlled by those states, cities and counties. Money generated by the reformed company will be used for drug treatment. The settlement is worth less than the $12bn originally envisaged. The company listed assets of up to $10bn and debts of $1bn in its chapter 11 filing. The Guardian, September 16

Apple has day in court over Irish tax bill
If all goes to plan for Apple, this week will be all about the iPhone 11. But Friday’s product launch will come just after fresh headlines about news it would rather people forget – allegations that it dodged taxes and took €13bn of illegal state aid from Ireland in exchange for creating jobs. The accusations emerged in 2016 when the European Commission said Apple and Ireland had created an “artificial” profit arrangement enabling the iPhone maker, in defiance of EU law, to pay a tax rate of less than 1 per cent. Both Ireland and Apple appealed, and on Tuesday and Wednesday the court battle begins when judges in Luxembourg hear arguments from both sides. Financial Times, September 16

Iran tells US it is ready for ‘fully fledged war’
Iran has warned that it is prepared for “fully fledged war” after the United States accused it of launching devastating drone attacks on two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The two powers are at their closest point to all-out conflict since President Trump reinstated sanctions last November, six months after pulling the US out of an international deal that limited Iran’s nuclear activities. The weekend events overturned hopes that the dismissal of John Bolton, the hawkish US national security adviser, might ease tensions. Brigadier-General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ aerospace force, said that any US base or ship within a 2,000-kilometre radius of Iran was within range of its missiles. The Times, September 16

Merkel deal allows French arms exports to Saudi Arabia
President Macron and Angela Merkel have signed a secret deal in an attempt to ease Franco-German friction over arms exports, notably to Saudi Arabia. The agreement is designed to stop Berlin from blocking the sale of French weapons that contain German parts to countries with questionable human rights records. There is anger in Paris over Germany’s human rights policy, which the French say is undermining attempts to move towards a common European defence. The row has cast a shadow over efforts by the two countries to relaunch their alliance. France is the world’s third biggest arms exporter, with 6.8 per cent of the global market, behind the US on 36 per cent and Russia on 21 per cent, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Britain is sixth with 4.2 per cent. The Times, September 16

HK police use blue dye to identify marchers
Hong Kong police fired water dyed blue and tear gas at protesters hurling petrol bombs and rocks yesterday as thousands defied a ban on marching. Demonstrators gathered in Causeway Bay shopping district and proceeded to Admiralty, near the main government building, on the 15th consecutive weekend of unrest in the territory. Riot police and hardcore protesters clashed, with the latter attacking government buildings with rocks and petrol bombs. Others smashed glass and sabotaged surveillance cameras at metro stations. In return police deployed water cannon that disperse a dye that marks clothing so demonstrators can be identified later. One of the vehicles was reported to have been set on fire. The Times, September 16

Brexit secretary raises possibility of standstill transition deal
Britain could stay in a standstill transition deal with the EU until the end of 2022, Brexit secretary Steve Barclay has said, in a further sign that Tory Eurosceptics are softening their position to try to strike an exit deal with the EU. Mr Barclay’s admission is crucial. If the transition were extended beyond its projected end date of December 2020 it would allow more time to reconvene the suspended Stormont assembly in Belfast. The body would play a role in the oversight of any deal. It would also allow more time to put in place new technological systems – what Brexiters call “alternative arrangements” – to avoid a hard border in Ireland. Financial Times, September 15

LibDems to revoke Article 50 if they win election
The Liberal Democrats have doubled down on their pitch as Britain’s “party of Remain”, voting at their party conference on Sunday to cancel Brexit if they came to power at the next election – without recourse to a second referendum. Jo Swinson, the new party leader, claimed on Sunday she could be Britain’s next prime minister and that she wanted to revoke Article 50 and scrap Brexit in the unlikely event she was running the country in the near future. That policy was endorsed by party activists, sharpening the election dividing line with Labour, whose contorted Brexit position involves supporting a second EU referendum but refusing to say whether it would campaign for Remain in all circumstances. Financial Times, September 15

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