The United Kingdom is doing its best to show itself coming apart at the seams. Are things really so bad? They could well be, writes Murray Ritchie.
Consider: inflation, the frightening cost of living, strikes all around in another miserable winter of discontent, food banks spreading all over the nation, health care in deep crisis, a Covid comeback, a flu epidemic, collapsing post-Brexit trade – not forgetting an unprecedented civil war in the dysfunctional Royal family. We could go on.
But one difficulty facing the unpopular British governing Tories surpasses all others. The prospect that Great Britain itself – that proud and once powerful prince among nations – could sooner rather than later be broken into its component parts.
When the foundering UK government looks north, it sees a problem it simply cannot comprehend. How can it be that after nine years of less than proven competence in several areas – notably health and education – the leader of the secessionist Scottish National Party’s approval ratings are still miles ahead of those of her rivals?
Nicola Sturgeon has the continuing support of those Scots who are holding out for independence. And that currently means more than half of them.
To the fury of Britain’s Unionists – Tory, Labour and Liberal Democrats – the one remarkable constant in a crumbling UK is Nicola Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland. She seems to be a born political survivor and is therefore hated by the British right-wing press while still the darling of her fellow Scots. Or most of them. Why?
The Tories have only themselves to blame for their own disastrous poll ratings. We all know that. So unpopular have they become that they are preparing to be chased from office at the next general election two years from now. For a party famous for its ability to cling to power against the odds this is a perplexing time. It has never faced a tougher test.
Sunak last week tried warm words and smiles when he had his first meeting with Sturgeon. This was in contrast to Liz Truss’s “she’s an attention seeker” jibe. But the more civilised approach could not overcome their differences, as Sunak admitted.
It was long forecast that bitter divisions over Europe would destroy the Tories. Well, the party’s collapse has indeed come, but just too late to save them from their own Brexit mistake and the subsequent backlash.
Now the UK polls indicate so-called “Breregret” (horrible neologism) is a new phenomenon in politics. A Savanta survey suggested this month that almost two-thirds of Britons support a referendum on re-joining the EU. Worse for Brexiteers, the poll showed fewer than a quarter of voters are against the referendum idea.
You might think Opposition Labour would rejoice. Yet it does not offer a return to the EU. Sir Keir Starmer, the party leader, is determined not to upset the working-class northern constituencies who abandoned Labour last time and voted Tory in revenge for job losses that they blamed on EU workers that Brexit promised to fix.
Meanwhile, as Brexit works its poison with the Tories and seems to paralyse Labour, the Scots, who voted 62 per cent for Remain, are holding faithful to the European ideal.
This leaves the Labour Party in Scotland in a tricky position. Preaching a return to the EU might win it seats but possibly also benefit the SNP push for Europe. Labour in Scotland has traditionally been derided by its opponents as a gutless Scottish branch office of London. Will Anas Sarwar, its most credible leader in years, have the courage to go his own way?
Labour needs to overturn the Tories impressive 80-strong majority. But can it do so without Scotland?
A long-held truism of British politics says Labour cannot win Westminster without Scotland. That must now be in question. So hopeless is the Tories’ reputation for economic competence that Labour can probably forget the rebellious Scots and win comfortably.
None of this worries Ms Sturgeon. Sure, Labour might win back several SNP seats next time, but the nationalists confidently expect to recover those losses by wiping out the Scottish Tories.
Thus the SNP would remain in charge of Scotland and press on with plans for a second independence referendum. And if that is denied again – a near certainty – the Nats will aim for an attempt to gain more than 50 per cent support for independence in a so-called de facto referendum at the next general election.
The idea, not exactly regarded as a masterstroke by everyone, is that Westminster simply could not keep refusing. But if successful it would undeniably add pressure to a government in London.
What explains Ms Sturgeon’s continuing attraction when all around her there is daily criticism of her record in health and education? The answer has become obvious. She has the continuing support of those Scots who are holding out for independence. And that currently means more than half of them.
When the UK Supreme Court ruled that Scotland’s parliament had no power to call a second independence referendum without UK agreement the reaction was unsurprising: support for independence shot up,
Six of seven polls taken in the wake of the ruling showed a sudden majority for independence, peaking so far at 56 per cent. There is little sign of that changing despite the travails of Ms Sturgeon’s government. Backing for independence seems to cancel complaints about her record and nullify any damage expected from reported infighting at the top of the SNP.
It was long forecast that bitter divisions over Europe would destroy the Tories. Well, the party’s collapse has indeed come
For Rishi Sunak, the UK prime minister, this is a growing nightmare. He not only stands to lose power as the Conservatives continue their internal war over Brexit, but he can see England losing Scotland.
Worse, he can see Northern Ireland joining the Irish Republic, Welsh nationalism growing, and now a nascent impatience with the idea of a British monarchy.
Earlier this month a Panelbase opinion poll In Scotland suggested 55 per cent now favour a republic after independence. That is a new high, even for Scotland.
A YouGov UK poll last autumn put support for a British republic at 27 per cent, up from 22 per cent in the summer (perhaps partly because of Prince Andrew’s misbehaviour). But among 18-24-year-olds support was 40 per cent. After the death of the popular Queen Elizabeth a Savanta poll suggested only 55 per cent for the monarchy and 31 per cent for a republic, although that was slightly out of kilter with other polling.
King Charles III could not have a more challenging act to follow. As she spins in her grave the Queen might consider herself well out of it all.
