The Glasgow COP26 outcome was the best we could have expected – those wanting more and branding it a failure were never going to be satisfied, writes Murray Ritchie.
So the enemy now is coal. COP26 delegates agreed on that at least, even those who refused to begin the serious process of phasing it out now. “Phasing down, not phasing out” was the weasel phrase which saved the entire exercise, but at least it pinpointed where the greatest effort must now be made globally.
Of course, it remains to be seen whether China and India, the major sinners in exploiting coal, are genuine in promising to turn their backs on it eventually. How quickly they do so is key. They were not going to be bullied into making promises they had no hope of honouring, and which would have swiftly sunk their economies.
For the time being coal to China and India is simply essential to their survival, and the idea of simply stopping it abruptly within a few short years was never going to happen.
Even the revived promise of more dollar aid did not sway the Indians who are world leaders at attracting international financial assistance. They were painfully mindful of promises made at the 2015 Paris COP when developing countries were promised $100bn a year – and were left whistling.
Now they are hearing the same message, but with the volume turned up.
Never before has the world agreed that the days of king coal are now by unanimous international consensus coming to an end in the foreseeable future.
John Kerry, US President Joe Biden’s special envoy on climate change, said more effort to fulfil this pledge is being made and that the money should be disbursed within two years. Better late than never, of course, but not soon enough to solve the problems of India and China who insist they simply cannot phase out coal as quickly as the world would like.
And the UK Conservative government’s decision to cut its international aid budget of 0.7 per cent of national income to 0.5 per cent did not exactly send an encouraging signal.
While India and China were accused of weakening the international effort to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C, India at least issued a pledge to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2070. China agreed to turn its back on coal but only at their own pace.
Overall, this outcome was seen as progress, limited, but still a movement in the right direction. If anything, Glasgow gave the world a new sense of renewed urgency and this will be tested at annual conferences over the next five years.
That is when the parties will have to submit progress reports and be held accountable for evident failures. That, at least, is the plan and it is full of painfully obvious flaws, not the least of which is the matter of trust. Can the world be assured all countries will be telling the truth?
When the parties meet again next year in Egypt their national plans will be scrutinised and their efforts given passes or marked down as failures. What sanction can be applied is not mentioned. Withdrawing promised aid would seem counter-productive for potential backsliders. India and China surely need the carrot and not stick treatment.
Glasgow gave the world a new sense of renewed urgency and this will be tested at annual conferences over the next five years
Glass half-full observers of COP26 will tell you it kept 1.5C within reach – if only just. And never before has the world agreed that the days of king coal are now by unanimous international consensus coming to an end in the foreseeable future.
Even if all the promises made in Glasgow are kept, the rise in global warming will be held only at 2.4C, according to scientists. So much more needs to be done – and soon – to keep 1.5C alive. The Climate Action Tracker Group estimates that by 2100 world warming will be more than 4C if no action is taken, which will mean millions homeless amid devastating floods, drought and fire.
Meanwhile, participant countries leave Scotland tasked with updating their emissions reduction plans with fresh targets for 2030.
Their burning of coal during those eight years from now will be critical. For the first time in history, whether big economies like it or not, the days of fossil fuels like coal and oil are on the way out. “Glasgow sounded the death knell for coal,” in the words of Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister.
Glasgow’s success was to codify that generational change into a remarkable and unprecedented worldwide commitment and to put this new global enmity towards coal – the greatest of polluters – clearly in writing.
After Glasgow, coal is a dirty four-letter word.
