Beyond Brexit

June 19, 2018

Brexit’s law of unintended consequences

Could England become independent as Scotland quits the UK? Murray Ritchie says emboldened nationalists are now showing renewed optimism amid growing signs of impatience with their first minister’s caution. The SNP always…

June 18, 2018

EU overhauls space policies

More than 10 per cent of the European Union’s GDP is already dependent on space-related services and major investments by the EU have enabled progress that no member state could have achieved…

June 12, 2018

Immigration: the ugly face of Brexit and beyond

A growing tide of desperate people seeking sanctuary and a surging anti-immigrant sentiment among the native populations of some nations will lead to an even greater crisis in Europe, writes Geoff Kitney….

May 8, 2018

‘Dialogue of the deaf’ proves an expensive exercise

Post-Brexit trade policy and whether or not the United Kingdom wants to remain in the European Customs Union, has not sparked the informed debate it deserves, writes Geoff Kitney. If the world…

April 23, 2018

When reality bites

Is Prime Minister Theresa May resigned to Customs Union membership for the UK after Brexit? Murray Ritchie suspects the answer is ‘yes’. First it was the judges who were “enemies of the…

March 12, 2018

Britain hit by harsh political and economic storms

It is alone in a world in which the rules-based global order of the last half-century is set to be replaced by dog-eat-dog, survival of the fittest, beggar-thy-neighbour trade policy chaos, writes…

March 2, 2018

Is the UK heading for a general election?

To the dismay of Brexiteers a hard-left Labour leader now appears more in tune with the business establishment than the splintered Tories, writes Murray Ritchie. Slowly but inexorably the divisions over Brexit…

February 26, 2018

Complex issues turned into simple slogans have worked – until now

This political reality is already apparent in polls that show some of the steady gains by right-wing populist parties have stalled or are in reverse, writes Geoff Kitney. The rise of right-wing…

December 29, 2017

Brexit’s international cheer squad loses its voice

Geoff Kitney explains why UK voters have good reason to be anxious about the long-term consequences of the Brexit vote. Brexit’s international cheer squad appears to have fallen silent. The thinning of…

December 13, 2017

Lesson 1: No nation makes deals based on compassion

Potential trade partners see a weak negotiating partner so desperately in need of markets to replace the EU that the UK will have little choice but to make concessions favouring other parties,…

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UK and EU close ranks on defence amid Trump turmoil
The global turmoil prompted by the Trump administration is deepening the EU’s resolve to sign a defence and security pact with the UK that would allow British arms companies to participate in joint arms procurement. President Donald Trump’s threats to not protect Nato allies and his overtures to Russia have forced European countries to collectively re-arm and scale up their defence spending, while also discussing how to pool capabilities to best protect Ukraine after a possible US-brokered peace deal. A “coalition of the willing” co-led by France and the UK has paved the way for the pact to be signed next month at a summit of EU leaders hosted by British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer - the first such meeting since Brexit. “On defence, the Brits are basically back inside the tent,” said an EU diplomat. “We just need this agreement to affirm that.” EU ambassadors on Friday met in preparation for that summit, with four diplomats saying a majority of capitals called for that defence and security pact to be signed in addition to a broader statement on geopolitical issues. Financial Times, April 14

China hits back at US tariffs with an export pause
China has suspended exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries. The move is in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s sharp increase in tariffs. The metals and the special magnets made with them can now be shipped out of China only with special export licenses. But Beijing has barely started setting up a system for issuing the licenses. Industry executives said that supplies of minerals and products outside the country could run low. Trump’s rapidly escalating trade war with China has scrambled prospects for many global businesses. New York Times, April 14

Trump exempts smartphones, computers from 'reciprocal' tariffs
The Trump administration has exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its punishing "reciprocal" tariffs - lessening the cost impact on American consumers for a host of popular high-tech products. The exemptions, published late on Friday in a notice by the US Customs and Border Protection office, cover various electronic goods including smartphones and components entering the United States from China, which are currently subject to a staggering additional 145 per cent tariff. Semiconductors are also excluded from the "baseline" 10 per cent tariff on most US trading partners and the added 125-per cent levy on China. The exclusions narrow the range of sweeping 10 per cent levies announced by President Donald Trump earlier this month, and the punishing additional rate on goods from China. France 24, April 12

British Steel tries to reverse ‘sabotage’ of Scunthorpe furnace
British Steel should be the “canary in the coalmine” that forces ministers to remove Chinese companies from critical infrastructure, they have been told. The government was forced to take direct control of the company amid concern that its Beijing-based owners would not keep the plant running at Scunthorpe. Ministers feared the company planned to “sabotage” the site to increase British reliance on cheap Chinese imports, The Times understands. There is alarm over Chinese involvement in other areas of critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. “It is an explicit strategy of the Chinese Communist Party to undermine the industrial base of foreign countries,” said Luke de Pulford, executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, an international group of politicians that scrutinises Beijing’s approach to human rights and international rules. The Times, April 14

Landmark antitrust trial could force Zuckerberg to sell Instagram
A trial in the landmark antitrust case against social media giant Meta kicks off in Washington on Monday. The US competition and consumer watchdog alleges that Meta, which already owned Facebook, bought Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014 to eliminate competition, effectively giving itself a monopoly. The Federal Trade Commission reviewed and approved those acquisitions but committed to monitor the outcomes. If the FTC wins the case, it could force Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg to sell off both Instagram and WhatsApp. Meta previously said it was sure it would win and experts have told the BBC it is likely to argue that Instagram users have had a better experience since it was taken over. "The [FTC's] argument is the acquisition of Instagram was a way of neutralizing this rising competitive threat to Facebook," says Rebecca Haw Allensworth, a professor of antitrust at Vanderbilt Law School. Ms Allensworth says Mr Zuckerberg's own words, including those from his emails, may offer the most convincing evidence at trial. "He said it's better to buy than to compete. It's hard to get more literal than that," she says. B B C news, April 14

Army planners sent in to help clear Birmingham’s rubbish piles
Office-based military specialists have been called in to deal with the mounting piles of rubbish on the streets of Birmingham after a month-long strike by refuse workers. Tens of thousands of tonnes of rubbish have gone uncollected and Birmingham city council has declared a major incident and issued a public health warning since the all-out-strike by Unite union members began on 11 March. The council had already appealed to neighbouring authorities for assistance but the government has now asked for help from the British army in tackling the crisis. This will involve some of the military’s office-based planners being called in to provide logistical and administrative assistance for a short period. It will not involve deployed soldiers collecting bins. The Guardian, April 13

Europe unveils new military support for Kyiv ahead of defence summit
European allies have announced a “surge” of military support for Ukraine, with the British government unveiling £450m ($580m) in UK-led aid. The support is partly aimed at strengthening the country’s position ahead of any peace deal with Russia. The UK will provide £350m this year, with Norway contributing further funding, Britain’s ministry of defence said on Friday. The funding will provide repairs and maintenance to vehicles and equipment as well as radar systems, anti-tank mines and hundreds of thousands of drones. The UK and Germany are to host a meeting of 50 nations at Nato’s headquarters in Brussels on Friday. British defence secretary John Healey and his German counterpart, defence minister Boris Pistorius, will co-chair the 27th Ukraine Defence Contact Group, a role previously performed by the US defence secretary until Donald Trump’s return to office. The Guardian, April 11

EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen
The EU is prepared to deploy its most powerful trade measures and may impose levies on US digital companies if negotiations with Donald Trump fail to end his tariff war against Europe. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told the FT that the EU would seek a “completely balanced” agreement with Washington during Trump’s 90-day pause in applying additional tariffs. But the Commission president warned she was ready to dramatically expand the transatlantic trade war to services if those talks failed, potentially including a tax on digital advertising revenues that would hit tech groups such as Meta, Google and Facebook. “We are developing retaliatory measures,” von der Leyen said, explaining these could include the first use of the bloc’s anti-coercion instrument with the power to hit services exports. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures … in case the negotiations are not satisfactory.” She said this could include tariffs on the services trade between the US and the EU, stressing the exact measures would depend on the outcome of talks with Washington. “An example is you could put a levy on the advertising revenues of digital services.” The measure would be a tariff applied across the single market. Financial Times, April 11

The US and China heading for a ‘monumental’ split
A dizzying escalation of tariffs has ruptured a trade relationship between the US and China forged over decades, jeopardizing the fate of two superpowers and threatening to drag down the world economy. Many economists cautioned that the full repercussions would not be felt for weeks. President Trump clarified that he had raised tariffs on Chinese goods by a total of 145 per cent, as tensions between Beijing and Washington showed no signs of easing. The S&P 500 tumbled 3.5 per cent yesterday, signalling renewed investor concern about the worsening trade war and the destabilizing effects of President Trump’s tariff policies. Treasury bonds began to sell off again, oil prices dropped and the stocks of Big Tech companies like Apple and Nvidia fell. New York Times, April 11

China says it will raise tariffs on US goods to 125%
China said it would raise tariffs on US goods to 125 per cent, further deepening a trade war between the world's two largest economies. "The US's imposition of abnormally high tariffs on China seriously violates international trade rules, basic economic laws and common sense," Beijing's State Council Tariff Commission said in a statement shared by the finance ministry, adding that the new levy comes into effect on Saturday. China will "ignore" further tariff hikes by the United States because US goods would no longer make economic sense for importers, it added. State media also reported China would file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization over Washington's fresh tariffs. France 24, April 11

UK economy grew more than expected in February
The UK economy grew by more than expected in February, according to the latest official figures. The economy expanded by 0.5 per cent, with the services sector having a strong month, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists had predicted growth of just 0.1 per cent, but the ONS said several factors contributed to the surprise rise which was driven by a boost in manufacturing and production. The better-than-expected figures come as the UK economy braces itself for the impact of tariffs imposed on goods being imported to the US, with analysts warning that growth could prove short-lived. The government has made growing the UK economy its top priority in its effort to improve living standards. Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said February's surprise growth was due to computer programming, telecoms and car dealerships in the services sector all having "strong months". BBC news, April 11

Breakthrough breast cancer drug approved for NHS
A pill that stops the spread of advanced breast cancer has been approved for routine NHS use in a “triumph” for British science. About 1,100 women each year in England and Wales will benefit from capivasertib, which is taken as a twice-daily tablet, and is proven to double the time patients live without their tumours growing. Capivasertib has been approved for those with the most common type of advanced breast cancer, called hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. The drug is the first of its kind, and works by blocking the action of the abnormal protein molecule AKT, which drives cancer cells to multiply. The drug is a British success story - it is manufactured by AstraZeneca, based in Cambridge, after decades of research by a team at the Institute of Cancer Research in London, who first discovered the structure of AKT in 2002. The Times, April 11

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