Beyond Brexit

June 12, 2017

A soft Brexit made in Scotland?

Add together the Scottish contingent in the Commons – 35 SNP, 13 Tories, seven Labour and four Liberal Democrats – and you find a formidable bloc for Britain either remaining in the…

June 9, 2017

An election result that has done Britain no favours

Global business needs to urgently reassess the likely fallout of the Brexit negotiations and the prospects for Britain once it leaves the EU, analysts, insiders and negotiators told a Sydney conference this…

June 9, 2017

Complex negotiations to cause business headaches

Farm lobbies in the EU and the UK are already ringing alarm bells about upcoming talks, reports Geoff Kitney. Here is a single example of the complexity facing the UK as it…

June 1, 2017

Rejecting the future

The United States and Britian have turned inward and away from their places in the international order. Germany and France are preparing to take their place, Geoff Kitney writes. Two great voices…

May 22, 2017

British trade ambitions in a Paradise Lost

Ignorance and naivety about the politics of trade are the biggest dangers facing the May government, Geoff Kitney writes. The challenge of delivering the centerpiece of Brexit Britain’s plan for not only…

May 16, 2017

You say you want a revolution

Populists have succeeded in making people feel that they belong to a group that feels what they feel, writes David Rawlings. The wave of populism that is said to be engulfing the…

May 12, 2017

Love minus zero and probably still no limit

May and Macron are treading diverging paths in the ever-complex Brexit era, writes Geoff Kitney. Two events in recent days have perfectly captured the essence of Brexit and the future of…

April 25, 2017

Multi-billion pound university sector needs certainty

An influential parliamentary committee will today warn Theresa May’s Government that it must offer university staff and students from the EU guaranteed futures in the UK if the sector is to survive…

April 21, 2017

Artificial knee replacement – a Brexit canary

Are your aching knees becoming rather more painful? If the answer is yes, the United Kingdom industrial strategy could have particular pertinence. John Egan traces the path medical technologies might take as…

April 19, 2017

Whatever happened to “now is not the time”?

If this election is going to be the Brexit election it is also going to be one that could decide the future of the British Union, reports Murray Ritchie from Scotland. So…

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Talks with Putin and US envoy Witkoff conclude without compromise
Russia has rejected a revised peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, after five hours of talks between President Putin and US representatives failed to deliver a breakthrough. The meeting, attended by President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, came after the Russian president accused European countries of trying to sabotage peace negotiations with “absolutely unacceptable” demands. In remarks that suggested little hope of imminent progress towards peace, Putin said Russia was “ready” to fight a war in Europe. “We are not planning to go to war with Europe,” he said. “But if Europe wants to and starts, we are ready right now.” The Times, December 3

EU agrees full ban on all Russian gas imports by 2027
The EU has agreed to a full ban on imports of Russian gas almost four years after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. EU diplomats and lawmakers from the European parliament agreed late on Tuesday that all imports of Russian gas would be banned from autumn 2027, with earlier phaseout dates for liquefied natural gas and short-term supply contracts. They also agreed that the European Commission should table a proposal early next year to ban all Russian oil imports from 2027. Russian oil is sanctioned but exemptions were granted to Hungary and Slovakia which still receive fuel through the Druzhba pipeline. The 2027 phaseout date represents a compromise between member states and the European parliament, which had pushed for a more ambitious timeline. Hungary and Slovakia had long opposed the ban, arguing that they are at risk of supply shortages and price spikes. “Finally, and for good, we are turning off the tap on Russian gas,” said Dan Jørgensen, the EU’s energy commissioner. He said that with the agreed ban, Europe was choosing “energy security and independence” and that the bloc “will never go back to our dangerous dependence on Russia”. Financial Times, December 3

Ukraine war, trade top the agenda as Macron heads to China
French President Emmanuel Macron is due in Beijing on Wednesday, where he is expected to put pressure on his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to help secure a ceasefire in Ukraine and discuss trade relations. Macron, on his fourth state visit to China since taking office in 2017, will meet Xi and Premier Li Qiang at the capital's Great Hall of the People before heading to Chengdu, where two giant pandas loaned to France have recently been returned. Efforts to bring an end to the nearly four-year war in Ukraine are expected to be on the agenda. "We are counting on China, like us a permanent member of the Security Council … to lean on Russia, so that Russia and, in particular, [Russian President] Vladimir Putin can finally agree to a ceasefire," French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said on Monday. "China can play a crucial role in guiding Vladimir Putin's Russia to make the right decision," Barrot told French radio. France 24, December 3

Crisis looms in Israel over ultra-Orthodox conscription bill
An impending crisis over conscripting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israeli army is threatening to undermine Israel's government and split the country. Public opinion on the issue has shifted dramatically in Israel after two years of war, and this is now perhaps the most explosive political risk facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Lawmakers are currently considering a draft bill to end the exemption granted to ultra-Orthodox men enrolled in full-time religious study, established when the State of Israel was declared in 1948. That exemption was ruled illegal by Israel's High Court of Justice almost 20 years ago. Temporary arrangements to continue it were formally ended by the court last year, forcing the government to begin drafting the community. Some 24,000 draft notices were issued last year, but only around 1,200 ultra-Orthodox - or Haredi - draftees reported for duty, according to military testimony given to lawmakers. BBC news, December 3

Thames Water half-year profit leaps to more than £400m after it raises bills by third
Thames Water has reported a leap in half-year profits to £414m after bills rose by nearly a third, even as it warned it faced huge funding uncertainties that could result in a rapid collapse into government control. Britain’s biggest water company on Wednesday said it had swung into profit for the six months to September, after losing £149m in the same period in 2024. Revenues jumped by 40 per cent to nearly £2bn after the company was allowed to raise customers’ bills by 31 per cent in April. Thames Water insisted it was making good operational progress, helped by a 22 per cent increase in investment to £1.26bn, paid for by the bills increases. Yet despite the jump in reported profits, the company warned there was “material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt” on its status as a going concern. A collapse into government control under a special administration regime - a form of temporary nationalisation - “could occur in the very near term” if it is unable to agree the terms of a formal takeover by its controlling lenders. The Guardian, December 3

Nigel Farage tells donors he expects Reform UK will do an election deal with Tories
Nigel Farage has told donors he expects a deal or merger between his Reform UK party and the Conservatives ahead of the next general election, suggesting he does not believe he can sweep to power alone. One donor said Farage told them he expected to do a deal with the Tories, whether it be a merger or an agreement on co-operation between the two parties, to ease Reform’s route to election victory. The person added that the Reform leader said such a deal could only be done on his terms, in part because Farage felt betrayed after the pact he made with the Tories at the 2019 election. Another associate who met with Farage in recent months said the Reform leader described a pact or merger as inevitable but added it might take some time. The person added that Farage said Reform held more power so any agreement would be made on his rightwing populist party’s terms. Financial Times, December 2

ECB refuses to provide backstop for €140bn Ukraine loan
The European Central Bank has refused to backstop a €140bn payment to Ukraine, dealing a blow to an EU plan to raise a “reparations loan” backed by frozen Russian assets. The ECB concluded that the European Commission proposal violated its mandate, according to multiple officials, adding to Brussels’ difficulties in raising the giant loan against Russian central bank assets immobilised at Euroclear, the Belgian securities depository. It comes amid pressure on the EU to finance Ukraine for the next two years, as Kyiv faces a cash crunch amid a renewed Russian military onslaught and a US peace initiative. Under the European Commission plan, EU countries would provide state guarantees to ensure the repayment risk on the €140bn loan to Ukraine is shared. But commission officials said the countries would not be able to raise the cash rapidly in an emergency, and this could put markets under pressure. Financial Times, December 2

Macron calls for Europeans to have a seat at the table in Ukraine negotiations
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to Paris on Monday, and called ongoing talks “a moment that could be a turning point” for the future of peace in Ukraine and security in Europe. The discussions are part of a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at brokering the terms for a potential ceasefire in the nearly four-year-old war in Ukraine. Zelensky's visit to Paris followed a meeting between Ukrainian and US officials in Florida on Sunday, which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as productive. The two sides have worked to make revisions to a proposed US-authored plan that was developed in negotiations between Washington and Moscow but criticised as being too weighted toward Russian demands. Macron said the coming days will see "crucial discussions” between US officials and Western partners. They will aim to clarify US participation in security guarantees to be provided to Ukraine after a potential ceasefire or peace deal, he said. The French president insisted that Europeans play a role in finalising the peace plan. France 24, December 1

UK and Europe’s hidden landfills at risk of leaking toxic waste into water supplies
Thousands of landfills across the UK and Europe sit in floodplains, posing a potential threat to drinking water and conservation areas if toxic waste is released into rivers, soils and ecosystems, it can be revealed. The findings are the result of the first continent-wide mapping of landfills, conducted by the Guardian, Watershed Investigations and Investigate Europe. Patrick Byrne, of Liverpool John Moores University, said: “With increasing frequency and magnitudes of floods and erosion from climate change, there’s a greater risk of these wastes washing into our environment. This includes physical waste like plastics and building materials, but also toxic metals and chemicals such as Pfas [‘forever chemicals’] and PCBs [polychlorinated biphenyls].” Across the EU there are estimated to be up to 500,000 landfills. Roughly 90 per cent of them, including 22,000 sites in the UK, predate pollution control regulations such as landfill linings to prevent leaching. Modern landfills which are well managed are likely to pose a low risk. The Guardian, December 2

Costco sues Trump administration for 'full refund' of tariffs
Multinational retail giant Costco has sued the US government to secure a full refund of import duties if the Supreme Court rejects President Donald Trump's authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Costco's lawsuit urges the federal trade court to declare Trump's 'emergency' tariffs illegal, an authority the president says he has under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Two lower courts have already ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by using emergency powers to impose tariffs. The case has now reached the Supreme Court, and several companies are trying to protect their rights to refunds should the justices strike down the tariffs. In the lawsuit filed over the Thanksgiving holiday, Costco said its business had suffered because of the tariffs and was concerned it wouldn't get its money back even if the apex court upheld previous rulings. Lawyers for Costco said a "separate action is necessary" as a refund is not guaranteed "in the absence of their own judgment and judicial relief". BBC news, December 2

UK pension funds dump US equities on fears of AI bubble
UK pension funds are cutting back their exposure to US equities, amid concerns over the market’s growing concentration in a small number of tech stocks and the risk of a bubble in the AI sector. Schemes managing more than £200bn in assets for millions of British savers told the FT they have been shifting allocations to other geographical regions or adding protection against a potential fall in stock prices in recent months. The moves come as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has shot up more than 20 per cent this year - and more than doubled since early 2023 - driven by the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks such as Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta. This has fuelled concerns about the market’s growing concentration in a small number of stocks and the risk of a bubble that could leave retirement savers exposed to a sharp sell-off. Financial Times, December 2

OBR chief Richard Hughes resigns after budget leak error
The head of the Office for Budget Responsibility has quit after being publicly rebuked by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves for accidentally leaking details of the budget before it was announced. Richard Hughes stepped down after the release of a report on the publication of Reeves’s budget policies on the watchdog’s website an hour before she spoke in the Commons. The report concluded that it had been the “worst failure” in the organisation’s history, and that the same error had also allowed early access to the chancellor’s spring statement in March. Hughes said he felt he needed to play his part in helping the organisation to move on after repeated criticism from the government. The Times, December 2

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