Should they stay or should they go?


Each morning bankers, analysts, manufacturers and their assorted intermediaries will be scratching their heads and sifting through news reports for clues as to what a Brexit outcome might look like.

Should they stay or should they go?

Leaving the UK will be a subject discussed across many a boardroom table. Risk analyses, contingencies and scenarios will have their place. Some intelligence will come at a high price, but not nearly as high as the cost of getting it wrong.

The tones of the protagonists will be carefully decrypted. From the strident UK prime minister Theresa May to her more recent collegiate alter-ego, the evolving role of the devolved UK administrations and a floated proposal that the negotiations should be conducted in French – these and many other signs will shift the predictions of a soft-to-hard Brexitometer.

While a rational objective is a Brexit that works for the UK and also for Europe, this most constructive outcome faces challenges from outside the political environment and its unexpected Brexit-like events. There are also more fundamental reasons why such a rational conclusion is unlikely.

In this week we bring together three articles that explore the forces that will act upon the Brexit negotiations.

Middle ground manoeuvers by Geoff Kitney

The political logic of a hard Brexit by Jacek Rostowski

The Game of Brexit by John Egan



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