Polling

March 30, 2017

Today the UK is in a state of consistency

In the week leading up to delivery of the Brexit divorce letter, public opinion in the UK appeared to be a strange mix of short-term pragmatism and long-term pessimism, writes John Egan….

November 23, 2016

Media mistrust in Europe is rife

Almost one in two European citizens do not believe their national media provide trustworthy information and more than half think they are not free from political or commercial pressure, a European Union…

November 16, 2016

Political regret you just have to live with

So why did so many political professionals fail to predict both Brexit and the US election result? Both are political earthquake events. Both seemed to result in counter-intuitive outcomes. In both cases,…

Israel’s invasion of Rafah seems inevitable
After weeks of delays, negotiations and distractions, Israel appeared to hint this week that its assault of Rafah was all but inevitable. Israeli warplanes bombed Rafah this week, and an Israeli official said that if an invasion began, civilians would be relocated to a safe zone on the Mediterranean coast. Israel insists that invading Rafah, a southern city where more than a million Gazans are sheltering, is necessary to eliminate the militants hiding in a network of tunnels there and to ensure the release of hostages. The US has pushed back against Israel conducting a major military operation there without a detailed plan to protect civilians. At the moment, Hamas is bottled up in southern Gaza, heavy fighting has mostly subsided, a cease-fire remains possible and delaying helps placate American officials who are against the invasion. Some analysts have even suggested that Israel may never invade Rafah and that the threat is merely leverage against Hamas during negotiations. But most officials and analysts said that an assault on the city was not a matter of if, but of when. New York Times, April 25

Russia vetoes UN vote on stopping arms race in outer space
Russia has vetoed a resolution at the UN Security Council calling on all countries to prevent an arms race in outer space. The draft resolution, put forward by the US and Japan, sought to reaffirm a principle already set out in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. The US has warned that Russia is believed to be developing a space-based, anti-satellite nuclear weapon. Russia said it was “firmly committed” to the existing treaty. The draft, put forward on Wednesday, called on “all States, in particular those with major space capabilities, to contribute actively to the objective of the peaceful use of outer space and of the prevention of an arms race in outer space”. It also called on countries to uphold the Outer Space Treaty, under which all parties agreed “not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction”. Of the council's 15 members, 13 voted in favour, while Russia - one of five permanent members with a veto - voted against and China abstained. BBC news, April 25

Macron outlines vision for independent Europe in keynote speech
French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday outlines his vision for a stronger Europe, pushing EU members to be less dependent on the US, but also hoping to boost his party’s flagging campaign in EU elections. Macron is returning to the same themes of a speech he gave in September 2017 months after taking office at the same location - the Sorbonne University in Paris - but in a context that seven years on has been turned upside down by Brexit, Covid, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Macron champions the concept of European strategic autonomy in economy and defence, arguing that Europe needs to face crises like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine without relying on the United States. He is also, after Brexit and the departure from power of German chancellor Angela Merkel, often seen by commentators as Europe’s number one leader. But his party is facing embarrassment in June’s European elections, ranking well behind the far-right in opinion polls and even risking coming third behind the Socialists. The speech comes with the European Union drawing up its new strategic agenda for 2024-2029. France 24, April 25

Hope for Amazon rainforest as fewer trees cut down
The rate at which the Amazon rainforest is being destroyed has fallen sharply after many years of logging, mining and fires. Projects led by indigenous communities, and key changes of government in Brazil and Colombia, have ensured a less gloomy prognosis for a vital weapon in the battle against a changing climate. “We are taking care of the virgin jungle; it is a lung for the planet, vital for the environment. We want to conserve and care for them for our community,” said Abelardo Ayutap Orrego, 53, a conservationist with the charity Cool Earth and a member of Peru’s Awajún people. The Times, April 25

BHP proposes £31bn takeover of Anglo American in mining mega-deal
BHP has proposed a £31bn takeover of Anglo American that would bring together two global mining companies and rank as one of the industry’s largest transactions in years. The world’s largest mining group said on Thursday that it had offered 0.7097 BHP shares for each Anglo share, as it sought to expand its portfolio of copper mines. BHP said its offer valued each Anglo share at £25.08. Anglo shares rose 13 per cent to £24.89 in early trading in London, giving the company a market capitalisation of £30.5bn. Demand for copper is expected to soar because of a global transition away from fossil fuels. The metal is heavily used in renewable energy projects and electric vehicles. The deal would elevate BHP to rank as the world’s largest copper producer, up from the third largest currently, according to RBC. The combined group would generate more than 2mn tonnes of copper per year, about 10 per cent of global mined supply. Financial Times, April 25

Labour promises rail nationalisation within five years of coming to power
Labour will fully nationalise the train network within five years of coming to power, with a pledge to guarantee the cheapest fares as part of “the biggest reform of our railways for a generation”. One of Labour’s first major acts in government will bring all passenger rail into national ownership under Great British Railways as contracts with private operators expire, a plan endorsed by the architect of the Conservatives’ own rail plan. Labour will announce it plans to cut waste and claw back shareholder dividends, saving £2.2bn. It will establish a watchdog, the Passenger Standards Authority, to scrutinise the new system. Passengers will be offered best-price ticket guarantees, automatic delay repay and digital season tickets across the network. In a speech on Thursday, the shadow transport secretary, Louise Haigh, will say renationalisation “is not going to be easy and it will take hard graft, but it will be my mission to get us to the right destination and to deliver for the Great British passenger”. The Guardian, April 24

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Polling

Today the UK is in a state of consistency

Political regret you just have to live with