Beyond Brexit

October 26, 2016

Brexiters wrong: Australia has high immigration

There is a paradox about Australia being used by Brexiters as the exemplar of a fit-for-purpose system for reducing immigration. Australia certainly has a prescriptive and, in the case of its humanitarian…

October 26, 2016

Should they stay or should they go?

Editorial Each morning bankers, analysts, manufacturers and their assorted intermediaries will be scratching their heads and sifting through news reports for clues as to what a Brexit outcome might look like. Should…

October 26, 2016

Middle ground manoeuvers

The major political parties in Western democracies are scrambling to attempt to understand and respond to what appears to be a spreading revolution against mainstream conventional political thinking on many of today’s big…

October 26, 2016

The political logic of a hard Brexit

PARIS – Little more than three months after the United Kingdom’s decision in June to leave the European Union, Brexit politics are careening out of control in the UK. An almost revolutionary…

October 26, 2016

The Game of Brexit

In one way it is fortunate that the pre-negotiations on Brexit have staked out the territory. The game has crystallised into two dimensions – controls to reduce unwanted migration into the UK…

October 19, 2016

EU to profit as banks consider their future

As the UK government seems determined to pursue a hard Brexit, banks in the City are planning to shift some operations and thousands of jobs to other European Union countries to ensure…

October 19, 2016

Topographia hibernica: Irish ponder feast or famine

The colonial mind-set will employ a cognitive dissonance of superiority before questing after another nation’s natural resources. It was no different between imperial Britain and pastoral Ireland. Giraldus Cambrensis, the Welsh ecclesiastic,…

October 19, 2016

The end of the beginning of the revolution?

There is ferocity in the way that Brexiters are warning against anything less than hard Brexit which suggests they are fearful of what could be called the “think again” factor. A similar…

October 19, 2016

Majority see value in overseas students

Overseas students studying in Britain’s universities are not seen as immigrants by most Britons and the majority do not want to see numbers cut, a new survey has revealed. Conducted by ComRes…

October 19, 2016

A glimmer of something in a future that is dark

On Wednesday last week members of parliament were given a chance to debate the need for “Parliamentary Scrutiny of Leaving the EU”. The House of Commons self-assembled into an intelligently expressed, cross-party…

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Russia launches overnight strike on Odesa after Putin suggests he is open to direct talks with Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said for the first time in years that he is open to bilateral talks with Ukraine, having previously demanded Volodymyr Zelenskyy be replaced before it could happen. Speaking to Russian state TV, Putin said: “We have always talked about this, that we have a positive attitude towards any peace initiatives. We hope that representatives of the Kyiv regime will feel the same way.” His comments were followed by Russian forces launching a mass overnight drone attack on Ukraine’s Black Sea port city of Odesa, which, according to local officials, injured three people and damaged many apartment buildings. Putin’s change of rhetoric on truce talks came as representatives from Ukraine, the UK, France and the US were set to meet in London tomorrow to talk about a potential ceasefire agreement. Zelenskyy, under pressure from Washington to agree to some sort of agreement or have support potentially withdrawn, said the London talks “have a primary task: to push for an unconditional ceasefire. This must be the starting point”. The Guardian, April 22

New Israel-Gaza ceasefire plan proposed, Hamas source tells BBC
A senior Palestinian official familiar with Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations has told the BBC that Qatari and Egyptian mediators have proposed a new formula to end the war in Gaza. According to the official, it envisages a truce lasting between five and seven years, the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails, a formal end to the war, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. A senior Hamas delegation was due to arrive in Cairo for consultations. The last ceasefire collapsed a month ago when Israel resumed bombing Gaza, with both sides blaming each other for the failure to keep it going. Israel has not commented on the mediators' plan. Meanwhile, 22 Palestinians have been killed in a series of Israeli air strikes across the Gaza Strip since Monday evening, a medical official in the Hamas-run health ministry said. BBC news, April 22

Starmer close to EU arms deal - at the expense of fishermen
Sir Keir Starmer is close to striking a major trade deal with the EU that would allow British arms companies to sell billions of pounds of weapons to European allies. British firms will be able to bid for the new €150 billion EU defence fund as part of Starmer’s reset with the bloc after the UK made significant concessions to Brussels on fishing rights. The prime minister will host an EU-UK summit on May 19 in London as he seeks to ease trade barriers with Brussels. Starmer is also expected to announce a deal worth £30 million for drones produced by Syos Aerospace, a New Zealand company with a factory in Hampshire … British negotiators are understood to have accepted EU demands for a multi-year deal on fish. The present deal, which expires in 2026, reduced the quota that European fishermen could catch in British waters down to 75 per cent of its pre-Brexit level. However, it was previously reported that significant parts of the British quota had been sold off to foreign-owned boats which sail under a British flag. The Times, April 21

India warmly welcomes Vance
Vice President JD Vance began a four-day visit to India yesterday and met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a time when the country hopes to dodge steep US tariffs. Senior Indian officials and some analysts took Vance’s visit as a sign that the US intended to continue working toward a trade deal. Before President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs this month, Indian exports were facing levies of 27 per cent. New York Times, April 22

Harvard sues Trump administration over threats to cut more than $2 billion in funding
Harvard sued US President Donald Trump's administration on Monday in a sharp escalation of the fight between the prestigious university and the Republican, who has threatened its funding and sought to impose outside political supervision. Trump has sought to bring several prestigious universities to heel over claims they tolerated campus anti-Semitism, threatening their budgets, tax-exempt status and the enrolment of foreign students, but Harvard has refused to bow. "This case involves the Government's efforts to use the withholding of federal funding as leverage to gain control of academic decision making at Harvard," the Ivy League university said in a lawsuit filed in a Massachusetts federal court that named several other institutions targeted by Trump. "The Government's actions flout not just the First Amendment, but also federal laws and regulations," said the complaint, which called Trump's actions "arbitrary and capricious". France 24, April 22

UK: Ofcom to tell social media sites to protect children from adult content
Ofcom will this week unveil codes of practice to prevent children from accessing adult content on platforms such as X and Meta under the Online Safety Act, which has emerged as a potential flashpoint in UK-US trade talks. Britain’s media regulator will tell social media, search and gaming services that they need either to remove or “age-gate” adult content, such as pornography, or find other ways to protect children from certain “legal but harmful” content, said people familiar with the matter. The act, which is being introduced in stages after passing into law in 2023, marks one of the largest shake-ups to how Britons access social media, including mainstream platforms such as Instagram, X and Facebook. Melanie Dawes, Ofcom chief executive, last year told the FT that the industry faced a “big change” in how it operated. In practice, the codes mean far-reaching changes to how algorithms serve up adult content, removing content entirely or tough new age checks to stop under-18s accessing sites and apps that have any adult content. Financial Times, April 22

Pope Francis, first Latin American pontiff, dies at 88
Pope Francis died on Monday at the age of 88, the Vatican announced. As a pope who wanted to stay close to the people and at times advocated a more moderate line at the Church, he presided over several key reforms during his time leading the Vatican. Jorge Mario Bergoglio was already known for his devotion to marginalised people in his native Argentina - nicknamed "archbishop of the poor" - when the Vatican announced that he was the surprise choice for pontiff on March 13, 2013. The first Latin American and first Jesuit pope was also the first to choose the name Francis, in honour of Saint Francis of Assisi, the patron saint of animals and the impoverished. During his years at the Holy See, Pope Francis repeatedly denounced poverty and corruption while seemingly softening some of the church’s longtime positions, even hinting that someday married men could become priests. France 24, April 21

Ukraine says Russia broke its own Easter cease-fire
Ukraine and Russia yesterday accused each other of violating an Easter truce declared by President Vladimir Putin on Saturday afternoon. The cease-fire, announced as lasting 30 hours, appeared to be a gambit by Putin to show the US that Russia was serious about peace. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who had agreed to abide by the truce so long as Russia did, said that Russian troops had fired artillery, ambushed troops and used drones. Russia’s defense ministry said that its forces had observed the truce, and accused Ukraine of violating it with drones and nighttime attacks. A Ukrainian drone unit commander said that the fighting in eastern Ukraine during the cease-fire was similar to how it had been since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in Feb 2022. “So, in reality, there was no cease-fire at all,” he said. New York Times, April 21

Palestinian Red Crescent says Israeli report into Gaza medics' killings 'full of lies'
The Palestinian Red Crescent Society has described an Israeli military report into a deadly attack on its paramedics as "full of lies". The Israeli military said in its report that "professional failures" led to the killing of the 15 workers in Gaza. It dismissed the deputy commander of the unit involved. A spokeswoman for the PRCS said the report was "invalid" as it "justifies and shifts the responsibility to a personal error in the field command when the truth is quite different". Fourteen emergency workers and a UN worker were killed on 23 March after a convoy of PRCS ambulances, a UN car and a fire truck came under fire by the Israeli military. The UN's humanitarian chief in Gaza suggested the investigation did not go far enough. "A lack of real accountability undermines international law and makes the world a more dangerous place," said Jonathan Whittall. "Without accountability, we risk continuing to watch atrocities unfolding, and the norms designed to protect us all, eroding." BBC news, April 21

Britain to ramp up explosives production to end reliance on US arms
Britain will dramatically increase its ability to produce explosives so it no longer needs to rely on the US and France for ammunition, The Times can reveal. Shipping containers will be erected at sites across the UK to produce RDX explosives, used in 155mm rounds for British Army guns and other weapons. BAE Systems, the UK defence company, is also looking to build three new sites to add “resilience” to the major project, in case one site comes under attack. The expansion of the production of sovereign munitions comes as British and European defence companies move away from buying American equipment amid concerns President Trump has made the US an unreliable partner. The Times, April 20

Global confidence slumps as trade turmoil looms over IMF meetings
Threats to global growth are rising as the US-driven trade shock crushes confidence and slams financial markets, according to research for the FT ahead of key meetings of economic policymakers in Washington this week. Confidence indicators have slumped sharply while financial market conditions have deteriorated, according to the Brookings-FT Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery, or Tiger. The deterioration in the global outlook is a marked contrast to the relatively firm start to the year. Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said it would be “premature” to forecast a worldwide recession but warned that the breakdown of global trade and higher policy uncertainty would markedly suppress growth. “We have seen this huge shock,” said Prasad. “Every open economy that relies on trade is going to get squeezed, and on top of that you will have [negative] confidence effects.” Financial Times, April 20

China sends back new Boeing jet made more expensive by tariffs
A Boeing jet intended for a Chinese airline landed back at the plane maker’s US production hub on Sunday, a victim of the tit-for-tat bilateral tariffs launched by Donald Trump. The 737 MAX, which was meant for China’s Xiamen Airlines, landed at Seattle’s Boeing Field at 6.11pm, according to a Reuters witness. It was painted with Xiamen livery. The jet, which made refuelling stops in Guam and Hawaii on its 5,000-mile (8,000-km) return journey, was one of several 737 MAX jets - Boeing’s bestselling model - that had been waiting at Boeing’s Zhoushan completion centre for final work and delivery. Trump this month raised baseline tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 per cent. In retaliation, China imposed a 125 per cent tariff on US goods. A Chinese airline taking delivery of a Boeing jet could be crippled by the tariffs, given that a new 737 MAX has a market value of around $55m, according to IBA, an aviation consultancy. Beijing is reportedly considering ways to support airlines that lease Boeing jets and are facing higher costs. The Guardian, April 21

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Making Information Valuable

Beyond Brexit

Brexiters wrong: Australia has high immigration

Should they stay or should they go?

Middle ground manoeuvers

The political logic of a hard Brexit

The Game of Brexit

EU to profit as banks consider their future

Topographia hibernica: Irish ponder feast or famine

The end of the beginning of the revolution?

Majority see value in overseas students

A glimmer of something in a future that is dark